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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070950
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE JUL 07 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 13N135.5W AT 07/0600 
UTC...MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 
LOW CENTER...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 136W AND 139W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND 
140W. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET 
TO 12 FEET ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 600 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN 480 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN IS BECOMING 
BETTER ORGANIZED GRADUALLY. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE 
CENTER IS NOT WELL-DEFINED. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. IT IS LIKELY 
THAT A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 
THE CHANCE OF FORMATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS IS HIGH.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                    

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W/102W...FROM 14N SOUTHWARD...MOVING 
WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 09N78W TO 09N87W 08N92W 08N98W 
06N103W 06N105W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N105W 07N112W TO 
04N123W AND 04N125W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO 
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/THE COASTAL WATERS OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 03N TO 10N...FROM 10N SOUTHWARD TO LAND BETWEEN 
80W AND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...IN THE COASTAL WATERS/THE 
COASTAL PLAINS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 07N TO 09N...FROM 
08N TO 10N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 90W AND 
93W...FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 101W AND 104W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG CARIBBEAN TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO SPILL ACROSS SOUTHERN 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEAST 
WINDS WILL PULSE IN A DIURNAL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS 
WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS AROUND 25 KT EXPECTED DURING THE LATE 
NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE 
ENHANCEMENT. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FEET DURING 
THE TIMES OF THE FASTEST WIND SPEEDS...THEY WILL PROPAGATE OFF 
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE GULF REGION.

A LARGE AREA OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SWELL IS MOVING TO THE 
NORTH OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS AND 125W. 
THIS SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST 
GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE LOCAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS NEAR THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT 
NORTHERLY WINDS AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS FROM THURSDAY 
MORNING UNTIL THURSDAY AROUND NOON...STOPPING BRIEFLY...AND THEN 
HAPPENING AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 38N130W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 
CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 30N NORTHWARD 
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
AND 140W...AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 25N130W BEYOND 
28N112W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 20N112W 17N117W 
12N119W 05N122W TO 1N121W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA 
THAT IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 22N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A GULF OF 
MEXICO 25N86W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO THE 
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS THE ISTHMUS 
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO 14N95W IN THE EASTERN 
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 92W AND 97W.  

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 17N116W...TO A 1021 MB HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N128W...BEYOND 30N140W. MAINLY 
LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ARE FROM 21N NORTHWARD...FROM THE BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WESTWARD...AND OUTSIDE THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
1005 MB DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 13N135.5W.

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Jul-2015 09:50:33 UTC