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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN APR 19 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE ITCZ IS ALONG 06N104W TO 05N109W TO 04N118W TO 03N127W TO 
05N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG FROM THE ITCZ TO 03N BETWEEN 108W AND 111W...FROM 01N TO 
03N BETWEEN 119W AND 126W...AND FROM 05N TO 06N BETWEEN 139W AND 
140W.

A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 05N77W TO 02N79W...CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N 
TO 04N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W.

A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07N92W TO 08N97W TO 06N104W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N 
TO 09N BETWEEN 98W AND 100W.

WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS ELSEWHERE FROM 
03.4S TO 10N FROM 105W EASTWARD...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 01S TO 15N 
BETWEEN 128W AND 138W3.4S TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 110W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 39N125W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N126W TO 27N130W AND 
BEYOND 22N140W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS 
APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...THAT 
WAS COVERING THE AREA FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 131W AND 138W AT 
19/0000 UTC...HAS WEAKENED IN INTENSITY. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS 
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE EQUATOR TO 15N BETWEEN 127W AND 
140W...WITH SOME ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 17N140W TO 25N130W TO 32N117W...BEYOND 26N100W IN 
MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO 95W.

LARGE-SCALE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC WATERS FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 100W EASTWARD.

FRESH TRADE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE IN THE AREA THAT RUNS FROM 08N 
TO 17N FROM 113W WESTWARD. THE ALTIMETER DATA HAVE BEEN SHOWING 
SEA HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 9 FEET IN THE AREA. THE AREA OF FRESH 
BREEZES WILL BECOME SMALLER IN SIZE AT 24 HOURS INTO THE 
FORECAST PERIOD...GOING FROM 08N TO 16N FROM 135W WESTWARD. 
FRESH BREEZES WILL CONTINUE IN ABOUT THE SAME AREA AT THE 48-
HOUR TIME PERIOD IN THE FORECAST. 

EXPECT AN AREA OF 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS IN NORTHWEST SWELL FROM 28N 
NORTHWARD BETWEEN 126W AND 137W AT 48 HOURS IN THE FORECAST.

A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN CONTINUES FROM 105W EASTWARD.  
RECENT SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS. SEA HEIGHTS GENERALLY RANGE 
FROM 4 TO 7 FEET. 

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N138W TO 24N131W TO 18N119W TO 
13N104W.

$$
MT


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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Apr-2015 09:39:02 UTC