411 
AXPZ20 KNHC 222205
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jul 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 116W from 02N northward to 16N
just south-southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands, moving slowly
westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 08N to 15N between 104W and 119W.

A tropical wave has its axis near 140W from 04N to 20N, moving 
westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 14N to 20N between 136W and 141W. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N100W to 09N115W. The
ITCZ begins near 09N116W and continues to 08N138W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 11N E of 97W. 
Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 04N to 15N 
between 97W and 105W, and from 07N to 13N between 126W and 134W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends along the central to northern Gulf of 
California northward with high pressure ridging to the west of 
Baja California. The resultant pressure gradient is supporting 
moderate NW winds for the waters near Baja California and 
slightly weaker more offshore. This pressure pattern is also 
supporting moderate SE winds in the northern Gulf of California.
Fresh to strong N winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 
moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters 
offshore Mexico. Seas are 5 to 6 ft offshore Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, 4 to 6 ft offshore SW Mexico, and 3 to 5 ft 
elsewhere except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, to 4 ft in 
the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate SE winds in the northern Gulf of 
California will diminish tonight. Pulsing fresh to locally strong
north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into 
Wed night as a diurnal surface trough is expected to move from 
the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then pulse 
to moderate to fresh there thereafter. Winds are likely to 
freshen west of Baja California by mid-week as the pressure 
gradient tightens slightly, then increase to fresh to strong 
mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro by the end of the week and into 
the weekend. Winds may build to around 8 ft there by the start of
the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of 
Papagayo region. Moderate southerly winds are over the waters 
south of the monsoon trough with light and variable winds 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in S to
SW swell north and south of the monsoon trough. Very active 
convection with intense lightning possible is over the offshore 
waters of Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east 
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through early 
Thu, then pulse moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally
fresh winds associated with these gap winds will affect the 
outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through Thu
night. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will 
continue south of the monsoon trough through the next several 
days. Seas will subside somewhat across the waters by the end of 
the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed centered well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 
around 19N and 108W. A pair of tropical waves are south of the 
ridge as described above, one near 140W and one near 115W. Winds
near and west of the 139W wave are fresh with seas of 8 to 10 ft
in the vicinity. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere from 
roughly 10N to 20N and west of 110W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. 
Gentle to moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, along with 4 to 7 ft seas. South 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, winds are moderate with seas of 6
to 7 ft in southeast to south swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently along 139W will 
move west of 140W later today with associated winds accompanying 
it and shifting west of the area by tonight. Seas of 8 to 10 ft 
will linger in the wake of the tropical wave through mid-week as 
the other tropical wave, currently near 115W moves westward. 
Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will linger from north of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ to around 20N through the week until the 
second tropical wave exits, with little change in winds expected 
elsewhere.

$$
Ramos