000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160725
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (Invest EP94):
A broad area of 1009 mb low pressure near 09.5N89W continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over and offshore
of Central America. Current associated winds are to 25 kt with
seas to 2.5 m. Convection is as is described below. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this
system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in a couple
of days while it moves west- northwestward near the coasts of El
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless
of development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
through the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please read the latest 
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center 
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for 
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from the
Caribbean Sea southward along 80.5W to across western Panama and
the Azuero Peninsula north of 04N, moving westward around 15 kt.
The majority of associated convection is noted over the SW 
Caribbean Sea with some enhancement over interior western and 
coastal Colombia, as well as western Panama.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N79W to broad low
pressure, Invest 94E, near 09.5N89W to 12N107W to 09N120W. The
ITCZ extends from 09N120W to beyond 09N140W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N within 75 nm of the
coast of Colombia, from 03N to 06.5N between 82W and 85W, from
04N to 16.5N between 84W and 97.5W, from 05N to 11.5N between
97.5W and 115W, and from 09N to 11.5N between 128W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Invest 
EP94 which may impact the regional southern Mexico waters, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec area.

Other than Invest EP94, The remnants of Dalila at 1010 mb are
analyzed near 19N105W. Some lingering winds of 20 to 30 kt are
possible per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with decaying seas
of 8 to 12 ft. Ridging is present west of Baja California with 
moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are in
the Gulf of California south of 30N, and moderate or weaker 
elsewhere including offshore SW and southern Mexico in the wake 
of Dalila. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across the offshore waters away
from the remnants of Dalila. In the Gulf of California, seas are
4 to 7 ft in the southern Gulf, 2 to 5 ft in the central Gulf,
and 2 ft or less in the northern Gulf.

For the forecast, other than Invest EP94, the remnants of Dalila
will continue to spin down and dissipate over the next couple of
days while associated winds and seas diminish. Cross-equatorial 
southerly swell will continue to impact the waters between 
Tehuantepec and Baja California Sur through early today. 
Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will support 
pulsing moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across the Baja 
California Norte offshore waters through the week. Rough NW to N 
swell will build into the Baja waters this evening through the 
week. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds will prevail 
across the Gulf of California tonight through Tue, locally 
strong in the northern Gulf later this morning into the 
afternoon. Winds will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere 
through the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Invest
EP94.

Other than Invest EP94, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere
from offshore Colombia northward, with seas of 4 to 7 ft.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the
Galapagos Islands, with 7 to 9 ft seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, other than Invest EP94 which may bring
increasing winds and seas as well as heavy rainfall described
above, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail offshore
Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through the week. Winds will be
moderate or weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to
moderate to fresh in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning.
Meanwhile, rough seas off Ecuador will subside slightly through 
today then remain 5 to 7 ft through the remainder of the week. 
Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft offshore Colombia northward 
through mid-week, higher near Invest EP94, then will subside by 
the end of the week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on 
Invest EP94.

Broad and weak ridging extend from a high well NW of the
discussion waters to across the open waters north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ and west of the remnants of Dalila centered near
19N105W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open 
waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, 
locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are 
mainly 4 to 7 ft across the open waters in mixed southerly and 
northerly swells, locally 8 ft in the north-central waters, and 
in the southern waters near 03.4S.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink
slightly southward through the week. A slight increase in winds 
is expected over the NW waters through the week, while winds 
weaken to the west and southwest of the approaching remnants of 
Dalila during the next few days. A slight increase in seas is 
expected across the northern waters east of 130W tonight through
Thu as new N to NE swell moves into the regional waters, 
spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the week.

$$
Lewitsky