000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040503
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 04 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 105W from 04N to 
16N, moving westward at about 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is along the wave axis within 60 nm
of 13N105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1007 mb 
over northwest Colombia to 09N84W to 09N92W to 12N101W to 
10N116W to low pressure of 1011 mb near 09N125W and to 09N130W.
The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is seen within 60 nm of trough 
between 82W and 86W, and within 60 nm south of trough between 
93W and 97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is within 180 nm south of the trough between 105W and 108W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the 
trough between 125W and 128W and between 133W and 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure centered well northwest of 
the region to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and a trough over the 
Gulf of California is supporting moderate to fresh northwesterly
winds across the Baja California waters extending southward to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds prevail 
over the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are in the
7 to 9 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, and 6 to 
8 ft off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere over the open waters off
Mexico, seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range in southwest swell. Seas
of 3 ft or less are over the Gulf of California. Hazy conditions
persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central 
America. Visibilities may decrease at times to around 6 nm.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW to N winds will prevail 
off the Baja California waters through Tue night, with mostly 
moderate W to NW winds afterwards. Fresh NW winds are expected to
pulse at night and into the mornings offshore Cabo San Lucas 
during the forecast period. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will
prevail across the open waters. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell 
will continue off of Baja California Norte through Thu night
before subsiding to below 8 ft Fri night. Hazy conditions, dense
at times, may persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over S Mexico and Central
America. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are found N of the monsoon trough. Gentle 
to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in 
the 4 to 6 ft range in long-period S to SW swell. Hazy conditions
continue off the northern Central American coast due to agricultural
fires in southern Mexico and Central America.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail N of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are expected S of the 
monsoon trough for the next several days. Hazy skies from smoke 
caused by agricultural fires over Mexico and Central America may 
reduce visibilities mainly over the northern Central American 
offshore waters through the rest of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure 
within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to 
E winds N of the monsoon trough to 20N and W of 120W. Seas with 
these winds are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds
are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough with seas of 6 to 8 ft in 
north to northeast swell across all but the far NW waters, where
seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds and 
seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail S of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, seas over the trade wind zone in the western
waters will slowly subside through Tue. Otherwise, little change
is expected to the current conditions over much of the area the 
next few days. 

$$
Aguirre