000
AXPZ20 KNHC 281557
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1535 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W
to 11N100W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N116W to 08N130W. The 
ITCZ continues from 08N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 
13N and east of 93W, and from 05N to 13N and between 108W and 
130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The region is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge located 
well northwest of Baja California, extending southeastward to the
Revillagigedo Islands. The weak pressure gradient supports 
moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore 
waters, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Moderate NW winds and slight 
seas are found in the central Gulf of California, while light to 
gentle and slight seas are present in the rest of the basin. 
Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are 
prevalent. Hazy conditions persist off southern and SW Mexico, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to agricultural fires over
southern Mexico and Central America. Visibilities may decrease at
times to 3 nm or less.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
west of the region and lower pressure over central Mexico will 
continue to support moderate to fresh NW to N winds and moderate 
seas off Baja California mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro into 
mid-week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell 
will prevail across open waters elsewhere. Hazy conditions may 
persist off southern Mexico, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
due to agricultural fires over southern Mexico and Central
America. Looking ahead, expect building seas with the arrival of
long period NW swell beyond 90 nm off Baja California from late 
Wed through Fri, with seas building up to 9 or 10 ft N of Punta 
Eugenia. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

High pressure north of the area is sustaining moderate winds in
the Gulf of Papagayo region, along with seas of 3-4 ft. Gentle to
moderate southerly winds are found south of the monsoon trough.
Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds
and slight to moderate seas prevail. Divergent flow aloft 
associated with a sharp upper trough reaching from central Cuba 
to Nicaragua is supporting a couple of clusters of showers and 
thunderstorms affecting the nearshore and offshore waters of
Central America. Hazy conditions continue off the Central
American coast due to agricultural fires in southern Mexico and
Central America. Visibilities may decrease at times to 3 nm or 
less.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NE to E are expected in the
Papagayo region through Thu, increasing to moderate to fresh 
speeds Tue night into Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW 
winds will persist south of the monsoon trough along roughly 10N 
while light to gentle winds are expected north of it through Fri.
Combined seas will remain in the 3 to 5 ft range most of the 
work-week as additional pulses of SW swell propagate across the 
forecast region. Hazy skies from smoke caused by agricultural 
fires over Mexico and Central America may reduce visibilities 
over portions of the Central America offshore waters through the 
next few days.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad subtropical ridge north of the area dominates the
remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics result
in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 23N
and west of 117W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Stronger winds
and higher seas may be present near the thunderstorms associated
with the 1010 mb low pres near 10N116W. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure will likely weaken to a trough
in the next day or so between 125W and 130W. However, building 
high pressure north of the region will support an increased area 
of fresh to locally strong trade winds, mainly from 08N to 22N 
west of 120W, allowing seas to build to 9 ft midweek. Meanwhile,
northerly swell will move into the waters north of 25N and east 
of 130W Wed and Thu, with maximum seas reaching 8 to 10 ft in a 
combination of NW swell and fresh NW winds. Gentle to moderate 
breezes and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. 

$$
Delgado