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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE SE 
MEXICO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS 
WITH INDUCED SEAS OF 14-22 FT ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS THE 
GULF WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 16N95W TO 14N96W. SHIP REPORTS 
WERE USED TO HELP DEFINE AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS LACKING ASCAT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO STRONG GALE FORCE WINDS FRI AFTERNOON...AND BELOW 
GALE FORCE WINDS SAT AFTERNOON. SINCE THIS EVENT WILL BE RATHER 
LONG DURATION...EXPECT SEAS OF 8-12 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL 
TO REACH NEAR 113W FROM 01N-14N BETWEEN 94W-113W BY SAT MORNING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N81W TO 08N95W. ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 
08N95W TO 10N121W TO 10N136W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 120W...AND 
WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS W OF 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SE INTO THE THE 
NW CARIBBEAN SEA WILL INDUCE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS 
IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO 
11-12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SAT WITH 
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W. 
THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT THEN BE OVERTAKEN BY A 
COLD FRONT FRI. THE NEW FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY IN THE NE 
PORTION AS WELL SAT FROM 30N132W TO 24N139W. NW SWELL TO 10-11 
FT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NW WATERS AND SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT.

1023 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N125W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS SUPPORTING A SMALL 
AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE ITCZ AND AN AREA OF COMBINED 
SEAS FROM RESIDUAL NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES TO 8-9 FT FROM 09N 
TO 17N W OF 126W. THIS AREA OF COMBINED SEAS WILL SHIFT WESTWARD 
AND SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT.

$$
MUNDELL



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Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Nov-2014 21:46:41 UTC