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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...          

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC 
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL 
STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS 
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS 
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO 
106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER 
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING 
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND 
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO 
12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING 
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210 
NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM 
SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...    

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED 
NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER 
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240 
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO 
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A 
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10 
FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT 
48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND 
SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO 
EARLY MON. 

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING 
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE 
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO 
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN 
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST 
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED 
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT. 

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD 
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES 
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW 
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL 
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING 
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$
STRIPLING



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Page last modified: Saturday, 30-Aug-2014 21:57:16 UTC