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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241525
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1525 UTC Sat Jun 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Low pressure is embedded within the monsoon trough near 13N98W.
Active convection is noted over this area from 07N to 16N between
92W and 100W. Overnight scatterometer pass depicts a well defined
center of circulation with fresh winds noted over the north
quadrant of the low. Environmental conditions are conducive for 
additional development, and the is a high probability that this
low will develop into a tropical cyclone over the next couple of
days. Heavy rainfall is possible in the Mexican states of Oaxaca
and Guerrero during the next couple of days, and interests along
the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of 
this system. For more on the potential for tropical cyclone
development, please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to developing low pressure
near 13N98W to 10N105W to 10N130W. The intertropical convergence
zone extends from 10N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between
95W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within
60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 105W and 125W, and west
of 135W.  

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features for more information on the low pressure
centered a couple of hundred miles south of Puerto Angel, 
Mexico.

Weak ridging across the area is maintaining gentle to moderate
breezes off the coast of Baja California supporting 5 to 7 ft
seas. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly breezes are ongoing
across the Gulf of California, although overnight westerly gap 
flow may have reached 20 kt off La Paz. Winds will freshen off 
the coast of Baja California Norte later this weekend as high 
pressure west of the area slightly strengthens, before decrease 
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens. Mainly 
gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected across the Gulf 
of California during the weekend with seas generally under 4 ft. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate southwest to west winds are expected across 
most of the region during the forecast period, with the exception
of mainly south winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.
Additional pulses of long period southwest swell will continue 
to impact the region, but seas will remain generally below 6 ft 
during the weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1016 mb high pressure remains centered near 25N126W, east of a 
surface trough extending from 31N132W to 25N137W. The 
weakened ridge is supporting moderate trade winds between the 
ITCZ and 20N, with gentle to moderate breezes north of 20N. 
Convergence of moderate to fresh southerly winds south of the 
ITCZ is supporting scattered moderate showers and a few 
thunderstorms along the ITCZ west of 135W. The ridge will build
early next week, allowing moderate to fresh northeast flow 
across the region next week.

Altimeter satellite passes continue to show northerly swell of 8
to 11 ft over much of the discussion area from 20N to 31N 
between 125W and 140W. The swell will gradually decay through 
late Sunday, leaving mainly 5 to 7 ft seas over the entire 
region.

$$
Christensen