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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302111
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2111 UTC Thu Mar 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough axis extends from 07N85W to 05N93W to 07N100W.
The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06N102W to
02N120W to 02N131W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to
07N between 82W and 84W, and also within 90 nm northwest of a
line from 04N125W to 03N128W to 01N132W.

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends SE from 1031 mb high pressure centered near 
33N139W to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to fresh NW 
breezes to the W of Baja California will become fresh to strong 
north of 27N tonight through Sunday night as a weak cold front 
off the coast of southern California pushes SE into the area. 
Seas in zone PMZ011 will peak at 10 to 14 ft on Friday, then 
subside to around 8 ft on Sunday before another round of NW swell
cause seas in zone PMZ011 to rebuild to between 10 and 12 ft on 
Monday. Winds will diminish over the Baja California Norte 
coastal zones from E to W Saturday night and Sunday as high 
pressure builds over the area. Seas off Baja California Sur will 
remain between 7 and 9 ft off Baja California Norte through the 
middle of next week.

The cold front will support a brief period of strong winds over 
the Gulf of California N of 29.5N late tonight through Friday. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate NW winds will persist through the 
forecast period.

Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the rest of
the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gap wind events are not expected to reach minimum forecast 
thresholds the next several days over the Central American 
coastal and offshore waters. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft 
seas are expected to prevail over the forecast waters during the 
next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong 1031 mb high pres centered near 33N139W dominates the 
forecast waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between the 
high and lower pressure near the equator is generating fresh 
trade winds from roughly 06N to 20N west of 125W. Seas in this 
area range between 8 and 11 ft as long period NW swell mix with 
shorter period NE wind waves. The areal coverage of the trades 
will diminish through Friday as the high moves west and weakens 
slightly in response to a passing cold front.

Marine conditions over the forecast region will change little 
during the next few days under the influence of this broad ridge.
Large NW swell associated with a stalling cold front NW of the 
area will reach the NW part of the forecast area Saturday night 
and the NE part of the forecast area on Monday. Seas in these 
areas will build to between 10 and 13 ft in long period NW swell.
Long period SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will cause 
seas from the Equator and 03.4S between 110W and 120W to build to
nearly 8 ft Friday morning through Saturday morning.

$$
LEWITSKY