000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070907
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jun 7 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Pacific Gale Warning: Numerous moderate to isolated 
strong convection persist near low pressure that is located a 
couple of hundred miles south of Puerto Angel in southern Mexico.
1006 mb low pressure (Invest EP92) is analyzed near 13N98W. 
Strong to near- gale force winds are likely within 90 nm of the 
coast of western Oaxaca and Guerrero this morning accompanied by
rough seas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development, and a short-lived tropical depression is 
likely to form over the weekend while the system moves generally 
west- northwestward just off the coast of Mexico, and will 
possibly reach near Socorro Island early next week. Interests in
southern and southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of 
this system. Gale warnings and rough to very rough seas are 
forecast for the offshore waters of southern Mexico between 
Puerto Angel and Cabo Corrientes Sat through early Mon. This 
system has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during 
the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical 
Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
 
A low pressure system (Invest EP91) located several hundred 
miles south of southwestern Mexico, near 10N108W with a pressure
of 1007 mb is gradually becoming better defined. Associated 
scattered moderate convection is limited over the area from 12N 
to 14N between 104W and 108W. Recent altimeter satellite data
from 02 UTC indicated seas to around 8 ft continue within 180 nm
to the southwest of the low pressure. Gradual development of 
this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves 
generally west- northwestward. This system has a high chance of 
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 08N80W, and again
from 09N110W to 09N135W to 08N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is active north of 13N between 97W and 105W. Scattered
moderate convection is active from 10N to 12N between 88W and 92W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on two
areas of low pressure with potential for tropical cyclone 
development.

A weak pressure pattern in place is allowing for generally 
gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore Baja California,
with occasional fresh winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San
Lazaro. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere off southern Mexico 
and in the Gulf of California. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft off 
Baja California primarily in NW swell, and 3 to 5 ft primarily in
long-period SW swell off southern Mexico, with the exception of 
the strong winds related to Invest EP92 as described above under 
Special Features. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, the main issue will be the potential for
a short-lived tropical depression to form off southern Mexico 
described in the Special Features section. Expect fresh to strong
winds with rough seas over the offshore waters off western 
Oaxaca and Guerrero this morning, with the range of these seas 
of 7 to 10 ft in south to southwest swell.
 
These adverse conditions will expand westward across the offshore
waters toward Cabo Corrientes through Sun as low pressure 
farther to the south off the coast possibly becomes a tropical 
depression. Mariners should continue to monitor the latest 
statements from the National Hurricane Center on the possible 
tropical cyclone development. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell are expected 
elsewhere outside the impacted waters of the Special Feature low 
pressure (Invest EP91) through the weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient remains over the area resulting
generally in  gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the 
monsoon trough, and light to gentle winds to the north of it. 
Cross-equatorial southwest swell is producing moderate seas 
across the offshore forecast waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of 
Papagayo and the coast of Nicaragua will diminish into Sat. 
Mainly gentle to moderate breezes will persist elsewhere. 
Moderate seas in cross- equatorial swell are likely over the 
regional waters into this weekend. Abundant deep tropical 
moisture will persist across the region maintaining a high 
likelihood of additional showers and thunderstorms through the 
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

1029 mb high pressure is located well north of the area near 
42N141W. A surface trough persists from central California 
southwestward to 23N130W. Moderate NE winds along with 8 to 9 ft 
NE swell persist east of the trough north of 25N. Seas are 
reaching 8 ft along 10N between 135W and 140W. Gentle to moderate
breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell persist 
elsewhere.

For the forecast, guidance indicates that a trough will form 
within the area of the moderate to fresh north to northeast 
winds during the weekend and shift westward. The gradient
between the trough and the high pressure to the north should 
extend the duration of the moderate to fresh northeast winds 
through late in the weekend, and possibly into early Mon even
as the trough shifts west of 140W. The seas to 8 ft in north 
to northeast swell with these winds appear that they will linger
as well. The 8 to 9 ft seas in northeast swell over the northwest
part of the are should decay by early Sat.

$$
Christensen