000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161537
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jun 16 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Offshore of Central America and Southeastern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure is analyzed near 10N90W, with
minimum pressure of 1009 mb. This system continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over and offshore of
Central America, mainly N of 05N and E of 98W. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two 
while it moves west- northwestward near the coasts of El 
Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico. Interests in these 
locations should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless 
of development, areas of heavy rain are likely across portions of
Central America and southeastern Mexico during the next few 
days. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation
through the next 48 hours and 7 days.

Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern portion of a tropical wave extends from the
Caribbean Sea southward along 81W to across western Panama and 
the Azuero Peninsula north of 05N, moving westward around 10 kt.
The majority of associated convection is noted over the SW 
Caribbean Sea, with some enhancement over interior western and 
coastal Colombia, as well as western Panama.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N85W to broad low 
pressure, Invest 94E, near 10N91W to 10N118W. The ITCZ extends 
from 10N118W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection related
to Invest EP94, scattered moderate convection is noted within 60
nm of the ITCZ and W of 118W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Invest 
EP94 which may impact the regional southern Mexico waters, 
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec area.

Other than Invest EP94, the remnants of Dalila at 1010 mb are 
analyzed near 19N110.5W. Some lingering winds of 20 to 30 kt are
possible per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, with decaying rough
seas. Ridging is present west of Baja California with moderate 
or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are in the Gulf 
of California south of 30N, and moderate or weaker elsewhere 
including offshore SW and southern Mexico in the wake of Dalila. 
Moderate seas prevail across the offshore waters away from the 
remnants of Dalila. In the Gulf of California, moderate seas are
in the southern Gulf, and slight seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, other than Invest EP94, the remnants of Dalila
will continue to spin down and dissipate over the next couple of
days while associated winds and seas diminish. Cross-equatorial 
southerly swell will continue to impact the waters between 
Tehuantepec and Baja California Sur through early afternoon. 
Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will support 
pulsing moderate to fresh N-NW winds across the Baja California 
Norte offshore waters through the week. Rough NW to N swell will 
build into the Baja waters this evening through the week. 
Moderate to fresh southerly winds will prevail across the Gulf 
of California tonight through Tue, with strong speeds in the 
northern Gulf through this afternoon. Winds will be mainly 
moderate or weaker elsewhere through the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for details on Invest
EP94.

Other than Invest EP94, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere
from offshore Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate 
to fresh southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos 
Islands, with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, other than Invest EP94 which may bring
increasing winds and seas as well as heavy rainfall described
above, moderate to fresh winds will prevail offshore Ecuador to 
the Galapagos Islands through the week. Winds will be moderate or
weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to moderate to 
fresh in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning. Meanwhile, 
rough seas off Ecuador will subside slightly through today then 
remain moderate through the remainder of the week. Moderate seas
will be mainly offshore Colombia northward through mid-week, 
higher near Invest EP94, then will subside by the end of the 
week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on 
Invest EP94.

Broad and weak ridging extend from a high well NW of the
discussion waters to across the open waters north of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ and west of the remnants of Dalila centered near
19N110.5W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the open 
waters, both north and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, 
locally fresh south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are 
mainly moderate across the open waters in mixed southerly and 
northerly swells.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will sink
slightly southward through the week. A slight increase in winds 
is expected over the NW waters through the week, while winds 
weaken to the west and southwest of the approaching remnants of 
Dalila during the next few days. A slight increase in seas is 
expected across the northern waters east of 130W tonight through
Thu as new N to NE swell moves into the regional waters, 
spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the week.

$$
ERA