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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1005 UTC FRI MAY 06 2016 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.     

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

MINIMUM GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO
STRONG N WINDS LATE THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE BRIEFLY TONIGHT
TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. THE FLOW
WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT OR LESS ON SAT AFTERNOON...THEN BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO STRONG AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...

A MONSOON TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 11N93W TO 08N111W WHERE
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE AN ITCZ FORMS AND CONTINUES SW TO
BEYOND 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
NOTED WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N95W TO
07N102W...WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N107W TO
10N113W AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10N124W
04N135W.  

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N E OF 120W... 

ELSEWHERE...A COLD IS WEAKENING FROM 32N116W TO 27N116W. A W TO
E SURFACE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS FROM
NEAR 21N120W TO BEYOND 15N108W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH-W-NW
WINDS ARE OBSERVED N OF 26N WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 5-8 FT IN
MIXING LONG-PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL S SWELL AND LONG PERIOD NW
SWELL. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT INTO SAT WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING TO MODERATE AND THE SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT BY
MIDDAY ON SAT. EXPECT GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE PAC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 3-5 FT SEAS.

STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA FROM 30-31N WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 8 FT. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX LATE TONIGHT WITH SEAS
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS EARLY SAT. EXPECT THE SW FLOW TO
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25 KT ON SAT NIGHT.

S OF 15N E OF 110W...

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DISCUSSION. STRONG
E NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...AND AGAIN LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...GENTLE NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED N OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND MODERATE S FLOW EXPECTED S OF THE TROUGH
AXIS.  

ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N E OF 140W...

A RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM NEAR 32N140W TO 21N120W. STRONG N WINDS
ARE OBSERVED N OF 30N BETWEEN 124-131W WITH FRESH N WINDS NOTED
ELSEWHERE N OF 25N BETWEEN 120-136W. LARGE NW SWELL MIXES WITH
CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 8-
12 FT IN THIS AREA. FRESH E WINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE RIDGE
AND THE ITCZ W OF 125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RELAX TONIGHT
INTO SAT WITH MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED N OF THE ITCZ
BY SAT AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT
BY MON AFTERNOON. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH NEAR 30N140W
LATE TUE NIGHT...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A MODERATE S-SW-NW WIND
SHIFT. 

$$
NELSON