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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300310
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE JIMENA...A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...IS CENTERED NEAR 
13.3N 127.5W AT 0300 UTC MOVING NW 290 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 
IS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
VERY WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE ABOUT 10 NM IN DIAMETER. NUMEROUS 
STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE EYE EXCEPT 90 NM 
IN SE QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN 
BANDS IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 210 NM SW 
SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. THE SURROUNDING AREA TO 20-33 KT WINDS 
AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND OUTWARD TO WITHIN 480 
NM N AND 240 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF THE CENTER ON MON AT WHICH TIME 
IT IS FORECAST TO REACH NEAR 15.6N 135.4W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WINDS OF 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO 
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER MON. REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC AND HIGH 
SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS 

...TROPICAL LOW...

A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 
10N108W. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A BROAD LOW CLOUD FIELD 
TURNING CYCLONICALLY INTO THE LOW. CLUSTERS OF DISORGANIZED 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OBSERVED FROM 
10N-14N BETWEEN 107W-109W. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL 
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS WITH SW FLOW 
INTO IT INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 07N78W NW TO 09N84W TO 07N90W TO 10N100W TO LOW PRES 
NEAR 10N107W 1008 MB AND WSW TO 10N115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-
107W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
180 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 93W-98W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
BETWEEN 100W AND 102W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 91W AND 93W.

...DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED NEAR 31N139W 
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N115W. A WEAK COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SW TO 32N126W TO NEAR 27N131W. 
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE TO NEAR 32N134W WITH A PRES OF 
1023 MB. THE HIGH WILL BLOCK THE FORWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE COLD 
FRONT ONCE IT REACHES THE N CENTRAL WATERS ON SUN WHERE IT 
DISSIPATES. THE PRES GRADIENT WELL TO THE E OF THE RIDGE WILL 
TIGHTEN ON MON INCREASING THE NW FLOW TO 15-20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 
180 NM W OF THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS 
BUILDING 6-9 FT IN NW SWELL BRIEFLY ON MON. THE SOUTHERN PORTION 
OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS JUST NW OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH MOVING NE THROUGH THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH IS 
TRIGGERING OFF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF 
21N139...AND ALSO FROM 24N-27N W OF 136W.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH GULF WITH SEAS 
OF 5-8 FT WILL CONTINUE INTO SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT 
DURING SUN AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-7 FT. 

$$
AGUIRRE


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Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Aug-2015 03:11:08 UTC