000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis has been repositioned and analyzed along 
85W, from the Gulf of Honduras southward through Central America 
and into the eastern Pacific to 08N. Scattered to numerous strong
convection is occurring from 06N to 14N between 84W and 95W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to a 1011 mb low centered
near 08N90W to 16N108W to 10N120W to a 1012 mb low centered near
13N137W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
03N to 07N east of 83W. Scattered moderate convection is 
occurring from 07N to 13N between 100W and 107W, and from 07N to 
09N between 112W and 137W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough has been analyzed from the northern Gulf of 
California through Baja California and southward to 21N112W, and 
high pressure prevails over the southwestern United States. The 
pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate 
to fresh SE to SW winds through the Gulf of California and 
associated seas of 2 to 5 ft, with seas to 6 ft in the far 
northern Gulf. Elsewhere, a 1035 mb high centered northwest of 
the area near 38N147W extends ridging through the waters offshore
of Baja. Moderate to fresh NW winds are ongoing in this region. 
Recent altimeter satellite data reveal seas of 8 to 11 ft north 
of Cabo San Lazaro, with the highest seas noted north of 29N. 
Farther south, gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas
in mixed northwest and south swell prevail offshore of southern 
and southwestern Mexico. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse offshore
of Baja California through Mon morning before winds diminish 
slightly through midweek. Rough seas north of Cabo San Lazaro are
expected into Mon before seas slowly subside by Mon night. In 
the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SE to SW winds will 
continue to pulse into Tue as troughing prevails over the region.
Locally strong winds will be possible in the northern Gulf Mon 
night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N winds will pulse in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through midweek as low pressure 
strengthens to the south.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The southern extent of a tropical wave passing through Honduras 
and Nicaragua is supporting scattered to numerous strong 
convection across the waters offshore of Guatemala through Costa 
Rica. Strong and gusty winds and rapidly building seas are likely
near thunderstorms. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds and 
moderate seas prevail south of the monsoon trough. Locally strong
SW winds and rough seas to 8 ft are noted well offshore of Costa
Rica and Panama, near a 1011 mb low centered near 08N90W. To the
north, moderate to fresh NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of 
Papagayo, enhanced by low pressure to the south and the tropical 
wave to the east. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Papagayo tonight as low pressure prevails over the 
south-central Caribbean. Strong E to NE winds and locally rough 
seas are expected to continue in this region and expand into the 
waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala Mon into midweek as 
low pressure strengthens to the south. Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for subsequent gradual development of this low,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of the
week while the system moves west-northwestward off the coasts of
Central America and southern Mexico. Locally heavy rainfall is 
possible across portions of Costa Rica and Nicaragua through the 
early part of this week. There is a low chance of tropical 
formation within the next two days, and a high chance of 
formation within the next seven days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1035 mb high centered northwest of the area near 38N147W 
extends ridging through the eastern Pacific, supporting moderate 
to fresh N to NE winds north of 15N and west of 120W. Rough seas 
in mixed N and NE swell prevail over this region as noted by 
recent altimeter satellite data and SOFAR buoy data, with the 
highest seas to 11 ft noted north of 29N and east of 123W. 
Elsewhere, a 1012 mb low is centered near 13N137W, and a trough 
extends northeastward to 18N133W. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds prevail in this region. Elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough, gentle to moderate N to NW winds and moderate seas are 
noted. Otherwise, moderate S to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft 
are occurring south of the monsoon trough. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will pulse
north of 15N through Mon as high pressure prevails to the north,
before winds diminish slightly for midweek. Rough seas north of
15N will slowly subside west of 130W into Mon morning, and east
of 130W Mon into Mon night. Elsewhere, a long-period S to SE
swell will move through the equatorial waters this week, 
supporting rough seas in this region Mon night through late week.
Otherwise, moderate SE to SW winds will prevail south of the
monsoon trough. 

$$
ADAMS