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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010246
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ALONG 111W-112 FROM 08N TO 17N 
MOVING WWD 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WAS NOTED FROM 08N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 
108W AND 116W...WHERE THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE MONSOON 
TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACTIVE ALONG AND S OF 
THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS 
THE PORTION OF THE TROF E OF 110W DRIFTS N TOWARD THE MEXICAN 
COASTAL WATERS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N74.5W TO 06.5N80W TO 14N99W 
TO 09N125W... WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 
BEYOND 07N140W.  SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED 
TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM N AND 180 NM 
S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 
115W AND 120W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS 
OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN 91W AND 102W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM 
N AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1012 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE...IS 
CENTERED NEAR 31.5N138.5W...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A BROAD AND 
ELONGATED AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS SURROUNDING THE CENTER. 
THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OUTSIDE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...BUT 
ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 8 FT CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD AND INTO THE 
FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THESE SEAS TO 8 FT WILL LINGER OVER 
THE FAR NW WATERS THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING BELOW 8 FT MON 
MORNING.

A 1026 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 
42N150W AND EXTENDED A NARROW RIDGE SW INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 24N140W EXTENDING TO NEAR 19N120W. THE RIDGING WILL 
GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE MONSOON TROUGH LIFTS NORTHWARD 
AND CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A RESULT OF AN 
INTERACTION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW MONSOON FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 10 FT S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 118W BY MONDAY EVENING.

E OF 100W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE 
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 

STRONG SW SWELL GENERATED ACROSS THE SOUTH PACIFIC HAS MOVED 
THROUGH FRENCH POLYNESIA TODAY AND WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE 
EQUATOR W OF 110W EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO 
BUILD TO 8-9 FT IN THIS SW SWELL S OF 05N AND W OF 115W BY TUE 
EVENING...AND REACH AS FAR AS 10N W OF 110W BY THU MORNING.

$$
STRIPLING



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Page last modified: Monday, 01-Sep-2014 02:47:00 UTC