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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250300
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC SAT OCT 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                       
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER 
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS WORKING IN CONJUNCTION WITH 
DEEPENING LOW PRES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC NEAR 11N92W TO DRIVE 
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE OCCURRING IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT 
THROUGH SUN MORNING AT THE END OF THE PERIOD OF PEAK DRAINAGE 
FLOW. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS FROM 1608 UTC SHOWED THE BROAD 
CYCLONIC CENTER JUST NEAR 12N92W ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND 
JUST EAST OF THE PLUME OF GAP WINDS. DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
GAP WIND FLOW WILL LIMIT CHANCES OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT 
WITH THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOKING AHEAD 
HOWEVER...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CYCLOGENESIS MAY OCCUR 
IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 09N84W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N93W 1007 
MB TO LOW PRES 10N110W 1010 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 13N118W 1010 MB 
TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
FROM 06N TO 09N BETWEEN 80W AND 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W AND 120W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 121W AND 133W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
1016 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED 23N115W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN 
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THE 
FRONT REACHES FROM 30N135W TO 25N140W. AN ASCAT SATELLITE PASS 
FROM LAST NIGHT INDICATED GALE FORCE NW WINDS WELL TO THE NORTH 
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT IS LIFTING TO 
THE NE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT 
TO 15 TO 20 KT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N125W TO 23N140W BY 
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT...THEN DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. HIGH 
PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SUN...ALLOWING WINDS 
OFF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AN 
ALTIMETER PASS OVER THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC INDICATED SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 17 FT NEAR 35N145W. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS TO 13 FT ENTERING THE 
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. WAVE WITH HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 ARE EXPECTED 
TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUN.

FARTHER SOUTH...SEVERAL WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE NOTED ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH...BETWEEN GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TRADES TO THE 
NORTH AND MODERATE SW FLOW CONVERGING INTO THE MONSOON TROUGH 
FROM THE SOUTH. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THE EXCEPTION 
OF A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE 
1010 MB LOW NEAR 11N110W.

OTHERWISE...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES ON THE 
EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH S OF PANAMA. THIS CONVECTION 
IS DESCRIBED IN THE SECTION ABOVE. BROAD UPPER DIFFLUENCE LIES 
OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN AN ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR JAMAICA AND 
EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN THE GALAPAGOS AND 
THE MAINLAND. THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE HERE...WITH PRECIPITABLE 
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 50 MILLIMETERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD 
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE HERE OVER THE 
WEEKEND.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Oct-2014 03:00:29 UTC