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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 292143

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 
2205 UTC Fri Jul 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.


Low pressure is embedded in the monsoon trough near 12.5N114W
with an estimated minimum central pressure of 1009 mb, moving
west-northwest at 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection
was noted within 240 nm of the broad center. There have been no
recent scatterometer passes over the low, however, winds are
likely still 20 kt or less with seas also less than 8 ft.
Conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development, and this low has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation through the next 48 hours.


A tropical wave extends from 10N119W to 17N121W and is moving
west at 10 to 15 kt. There is limited convection in the vicinity
of the tropical wave.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 11N86W to 08N100W to low
pressure near 12.5N114W to 11N123W. The ITCZ axis extends from
11N123W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection within 180 nm
either side of the axis between 90W and 105W...and within 60-90
nm either side of the axis between 129W and 133W. 

Also, scattered moderate but weakening convection is from 03N to
07N east of 85W, just south of the Gulf of Panama. This
convection developed last night over western Colombia before
propagating offshore.


N of 15N E of 120W:

In the Gulf of California, surface troughing will linger along the
Baja California peninsula. Moderate to fresh southeasterly flow
will prevail in the central and northern Gulf on the east side of
this troughing, with light and variable winds across the southern
Gulf. Winds in the central and northern Gulf will diminish late
in the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes.

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, nocturnal northerly flow will pulse to
fresh through Sunday, then will increase to fresh to strong Monday
through Wednesday. 

Elsewhere, A weak surface ridge extends into the area from the
northwest, partially disrupted by the remnant circulation of Frank
located well to the west. This ridging will support mainly gentle
west to northwest flow across the open Pacific waters,
occasionally pulsing to moderate just offshore of the Baja
California peninsula. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft.

S of 15N E of 120W: 

In the Gulf of Papagayo, nocturnal drainage flow will pulse to
fresh levels tonight into early Saturday, then will increase to
fresh to strong late Saturday night into early Sunday. Weaker
winds are expected through the middle of next week as the monsoon
trough drifts slightly northward. Otherwise, light to moderate
flow is anticipated on either side of the monsoon trough.

Long-period cross-equatorial southwesterly swell with seas of 6
to 9 ft, will gradually decay through the weekend. Low pressure
is expected to develop near 09N100W  on Sat with fresh winds on
the southeast side, combined with the southwesterly swell is
supporting combined seas of 8 ft. Expect these seas to linger on
the southeast side of the low as it moves to the west around 10
to 15 kt Sat into Sun. 

W of 120W:

Ridging extending from northwest of the area is disrupted by the
remnant circulations of Frank and Georgette. The remnant low of
Frank is near 24N126W with a minimum central pressure of 1011 mb
with associated winds now 20 kt or less. Lingering combined seas
to 8 ft on the western side of the low will decay to less than 8
ft by early Saturday. The remnant of Georgette is has
degenerated into an open trough. Remnant seas are less than 8 ft.

Meanwhile, northwest swells of 8 to 9 ft in the far northwest
corner of the area will subside by tonight with a new set of
northerly swell seeping south of 30N Sunday night through the
early part of next week.