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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 050236
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC TUE MAY 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...              

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N88W TO 07N100W TO 06N112W TO  
05N118W...WHERE IT TERMINATES. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 04N122W TO 
03N130W TO BEYOND 03N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 109W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...    

AT UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE AREA S OF 20N 
AND W OF 86W...WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED ON AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 
13N111W...EXTENDING NE TO NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND EXTREME SW 
TEXAS NEAR 30N104W. ACTIVE CONVECTION PERSISTING UNDER THE RIDGE 
THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY IN AREAL 
COVERAGE...WITH THE ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY 
PERSISTING JUST W AND NW OF THE ANTICYCLONE. A MIDDLE TO UPPER 
TROUGH ACROSS NE PORTIONS HAS SHIFTED E-NE INTO THE SOUTH HALF 
OF CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA...AND IS AIDING IN GENERATING 
CONVECTION ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE U.S. UPSTREAM 
OF THIS TROUGH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE 
WLY FLOW ALOFT. A UPPER JET OF S OF THE SHORTWAVE 
TROUGHS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR 19N140W NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE 
RIDGE AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO...AND IS STARTING TO FLATTEN TO 
RIDGE THERE. THE TWO SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE AND 
INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH WED AND WILL COMPLETE A 
FLATTENING OF THE RIDGE. 

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS W PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA...CENTERED ON A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 37N143W...AND EXTENDS SE 
TO NEAR 20N119W. MODERATE TO FRESH NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL S AND 
SE OF THE RIDGE...S OF 22N AND W OF 108W. NE WIND SWELL IN THIS 
ZONE OF TRADES IS MAINTAINING SEAS 7-10 FT WITH MIXED SW SWELL. 
ACROSS THE TROPICS E OF 108W WINDS ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE...AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS... 
EXCEPT FOR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WHERE GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT BRIEFLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT. 

LONG PERIOD SOUTHWEST SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC SWELL HAS BEGUN TO 
SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE PAST 12 
HOURS...WITH SEAS STILL 7 TO 10 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA E OF 
130W THIS EVENING. PEAK WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT 
HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WATERS OF 
SOUTHERN THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THIS SW SWELL WILL CONTINUE 
TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY WED...WITH WAVE CONDITIONS 
WITHIN THE SURFZONE AND ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST BEACHES 
GRADUALLY IMPROVING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. 

$$
STRIPLING


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 05-May-2015 02:36:51 UTC