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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270959
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                        
1005 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC LATER TODAY IN 
ABOUT 18 HOURS...AND REACH MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON FRIDAY EVENING 
AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE ON SATURDAY. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE 
BUILDING TO ABOUT 12 FT NEAR 14.5N95W ON SAT MORNING. GUIDANCE 
INDICATES ANOTHER BRIEFLY SURGE TO GALE FORCE LATE SAT NIGHT. 
THE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS 
THROUGH LATE MON MORNING...THEN DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT BY MON 
EVENING.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COSTA 
RICA NEAR 08N83W TO 06N88W AND TO 05N93W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 
06N100W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 09N112W TO 07N125W TO 08N132W TO 
07N140W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG 
FROM 08N TO 11N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 118W AND 123W... AND FROM 07N TO 09N 
BETWEEN 134W AND 136W...AND FROM 02N TO 05N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 16N140W TO 
10N130W. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC 
OCEAN FROM 03N TO 20N FROM 126W WESTWARD. THE SCATTERED-TO-
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE ITCZ IS 
BEING ENHANCED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...AND 
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N135W TO 23N130W...CURVING TO 
14N108W. A SMALL AREA OF EASTERLY TRADES SW OF THE RIDGE HAVE 
DIMINISHED TO 20 KT OR LESS. NW SWELLS HAVE BEEN MIXING WITH 
EASTERLY TRADE WIND SWELL RESULTING IN COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT 
ACROSS MOST OF PACIFIC WATERS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 130W. THE 
SWELLS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINED SEA 
HEIGHTS WILL BE SUBSIDING TO LOWER THAN 8 FEET BY EARLY 
SATURDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS THAT ARE TO THE NE OF THE RIDGE WILL 
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-11 FT IN THE AREA THAT IS FROM 
27N/28N NORTHWARD THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 118W 
AND 130W. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO NW AT 15-20 KT LATE FRIDAY 
AS THE N-N SWELLS REACH THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA 
PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 6-8 FT SEAS. THESE MODERATE SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 5-7 FT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.    

THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY ARE 
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. SOUTH-TO-SOUTHWEST WINDS 
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP GRADUALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS 
OF SATURDAY...AND THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT FROM 29.5N NORTHWARD 
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO RELAX TO 
10-15 KT AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH ARRIVING IN THE NORTHERN PART OF 
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY A 5-10 KT 
SW-NW WIND SHIFT. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NOCTURNAL 20-25 KT NE SURGES ARE EXPECTED 
TO RESUME ON FRI NIGHT...WITH A SIGNIFICANT EVENT FROM THE 
MIDNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY UNTIL THE MIDNIGHT HOURS OF TUESDAY. 

$$ 
MT



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Page last modified: Friday, 27-Feb-2015 09:59:46 UTC