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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111539
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                  
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                      
1605 UTC WED FEB 11 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1400 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...MAXIMUM WINDS OF 40-45 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH SAT
MORNING AS THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT BETWEEN THE ITCZ TO
THE SW AND HIGH PRES TO THE N OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
MAXIMUM SEAS IN THE 16-18 FT RANGE WILL PERSIST S OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD SAT MORNING.
THIS ONGOING GALE EVENT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE NE SWELL
THAT WILL PROPAGATE S-SW...MERGING WITH E-NE SWELL GENERATED
FROM THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE EVENT. THIS COMBINED SWELL WILL
ALLOW FOR 10-14 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN
90W-102W THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH MAXIMUM SEAS THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING AS THE WINDS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO DIMINISH. SEE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO GALE WARNING...MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF
PAPAGAYO THROUGH FRI MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO A STRONG BREEZE TO
NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH SUNRISE SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA BEGINS TO SLACKEN. THE NARROW BAND OF GALE
CONDITIONS IS SURROUNDED BY A LARGE AREA OF STRONG TO NEAR GALE
FLOW EXTENDING AS FAR SW AS 07N96W...WITH 10-14 FT SEAS FOUND
WELL DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AS DESCRIBED WITH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING ABOVE. THE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN
THE GULF OF FONSECA THIS MORNING SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE
FRI. SEE LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...     

THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 04N88W TO 02N100W TO
05N110W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 06N115W TO 03N130W TO 02N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 88W-100W. A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG 112W FROM 04N-10N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 420 NM E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 04N-08N.

...DISCUSSION...                                           

SURFACE RIDGES EXTEND SE FROM 1023 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N127W
SOUTHEASTWARD TO 25N118W AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO 20N140W. A COLD
FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST W OF THE RIDGING ACROSS NW WATERS FROM
32N138W TO 29N140W. THIS COLD FRONT IS USHERING IN LONG-PERIOD
NW SWELL...WITH SEAS IN THE 12-18 FT RANGE W OF A LINE FROM
30N135W TO 24N140W. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER NW WATERS FRI.
PERIODS IN EXCESS OF 20 SECONDS ARE FOUND ON THE LEADING EDGE OF
THIS SWELL TRAIN WHICH SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
NORTE EARLY FRI MORNING WITH SEAS IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE. THE SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FRI INTO SAT MORNING. THIS SWELL MAY MAKE
FOR LARGE SURF AND DANGEROUS CONDITIONS EXITING AND ENTERING
PORTS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SWELL WILL REACH THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA BY FRI EVENING AND CABO
CORRIENTES BY SAT MORNING. 

THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGING TO THE N AND THE ITCZ TO
THE S IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PRIMARILY FROM
07N-11N W OF 130W AS SEEN IN THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASSES AROUND
06Z. THESE TRADES SHOULD SHRINK IN AREA FRI AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES N OF THE AREA...BUT SHOULD EXPAND AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM 07N-25N W OF 137W BY SAT AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
BEHIND THE FRONT. 

GAP WINDS... 

GULF OF PANAMA...A FRESH TO STRONG N-NE BREEZE WILL PERSIST FROM
THE GULF OF PANAMA S-SW TO NEAR 03N82W THROUGH FRI
MORNING...WITH THE AREAL EXTENT OF THESE WINDS BECOMING SLIGHTLY
LARGER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND SHRINKING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRI
MORNING. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN SOME BY SAT...REDUCING
THE AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SUBSIDING SEAS TO 8 FT. 

$$
SCHAUER