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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232156
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN NOV 23 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2030 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 09N78W TO 08N94W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 11N110W 1009 MB. THE ITCZ AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 
11N110W TO 10N128W TO 08N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 210 NM OF LOW PRES 
NEAR 11N110W...EXCEPT 90 NM W QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W 
OF 113W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1029 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRES CENTER NEAR 32N135W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD THROUGH 20N115W TO NEAR 18N105W. THE PRES 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE ITCZ IS STRONG ENOUGH TO 
SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS W OF A LINE 
FROM 27N140W TO 15N114W TO 06N140W. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS 
ENHANCED WINDS TO A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ON THE N SIDE OF A 
LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W. MEANWHILE...A FRESH TO STRONG N 
BREEZE CAN ALSO BE FOUND ON THE N SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS N OF 
29N BETWEEN 117W-123W. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL MIGRATE NE OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...WEAKENING THE PRES GRADIENT AND DIMINISHING 
WINDS TO A FRESH BREEZE EVERYWHERE BY MIDDAY MON. AS HIGH PRES 
OOZES INLAND OVER THE U.S. GREAT BASIN...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL 
BUILD OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND JUST OFF THE W COAST OF 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHERE NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REACH A STRONG BREEZE EARLY TUE AND POSSIBLY NEAR GALE FORCE BY 
MIDDAY. AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E...IT WILL MAKE WAY FOR A NEW COLD 
FRONT EXPEXTED TO APPROACH NW WATERS TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING 
A NEW ROUND OF NW SWELL TO THE AREA. THE NW SWELL AND NE WIND 
WAVES IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 08N W OF 117W WILL 
KEEP SEAS IN THE 7-10 FT RANGE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CONVECTION NOTED IN THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH SECTION IS FOCUSED 
FROM THE LOW PRES CENTER NEAR 11N110W WESTWARD TO 130W. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE ALONG THE 
ITCZ BETWEEN 107W AND 123W. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 10N130W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD OVER THIS 
AREA TO 08N116W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING VERTICAL MOTION AS 
IS THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET HOVERING TO THE EAST 
OVER THE SURFACE LOW AT 11N110W. CONDITONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN 
ACTIVE ALONG THE ITCZ OVER CENTRAL WATERS AS A RESULT. 

GAP WINDS...HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES ALONG 34N FROM TEXAS THROUGH 
ARIZONA HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF CALIFORNIA BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES OVER THE 
NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL 
EXPAND S THROUGH THE GULF THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING WHEN THEY 
WILL PEAK AT NEAR GALE FORCE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH MIDDAY 
TUE. 

$$
SCHAUER



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Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Nov-2014 21:56:26 UTC