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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 212204

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Feb 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure is building 
southward across eastern Mexico in the wake of a frontal system 
moving slowly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico today. Strong 
winds generated west of the front are beginning to funnel 
through the Chivela pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and are 
believed to have increased to 20-30 kt late this afternoon. 
These northerly gap winds are expected to increase further to 
gale force through this evening, with seas building to 12 ft 
tonight. This gap wind event will be brief as winds peak at 
minimal gale force this evening and tonight, then diminish below 
gale force by sunrise Wednesday morning and then gradually 
diminish to 20-25 kt Wednesday afternoon.

Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers 
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details.


There is no ITCZ over the forecast waters north of the equator.



Please see above for information on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale 
force gap wind event. 

Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail across much of the 
forecast waters west of Baja as indicated by the latest 
satellite-derived wind data. Seas continue in the 6-9 ft range 
in NW swell across the Baja offshore waters, and 5-8 ft across 
the waters adjacent to southwest Mexico. A modest pressure 
gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure centered near 28N123W 
and lower pressure across the western flanks of the Sierra 
Madres is producing fresh to locally strong northwesterly winds 
across most of the Gulf of California, where seas are running 3-
6 ft. These winds will diminish very slowly over the next 24 
hours while the strongest winds shift into N portions of the 

A fresh pulse of NW swell generated by a cold front west of the 
area is moving toward the Baja California Norte offshore waters 
this afternoon. This swell will continue to propagate across the 
waters off the west coast of the Baja California peninsula and 
maintain seas in the 8-12 ft range over this area through early 
Friday. Building high pressure west of Baja California is 
expected to produce fresh to strong NW winds along the western 
Baja California coast north of 25N Wednesday night through 
Thursday night and over the Gulf of California N of 30N on 
Thursday morning. Winds will subside as the high weakens in 
response to low pressure approaching from the west. Seas are 
then expected to subside below 8 ft in this area Friday night 
through the weekend. Another cold front could bring yet another 
round of NW swell to Baja waters on Monday.


Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh winds this morning
will subside by this evening.

Gulf of Panama: Moderate winds will become light on Wednesday.

Otherwise, winds will be in the light to gentle range over the
forecast area.


High pressure of 1026 mb is stationary ear 28N123W. A frontal 
boundary has stalled across the northern waters from 30N125W TO 
21N140W. Winds in the vicinity of this front have diminished to 
20 kt or less. Large NW swell generated north of the front 
continues to produce peak seas of 12-15 ft near 29N133W and 
propagate SE across the forecast waters. The front is beginning 
to weaken, and is expected to dissipate later today. This NW 
swell will continue to dominate the forecast waters, with seas 
greater than 8 ft covering much of the forecast waters north of 
10N and west of 110W. A small area of 20 to 25 kt NE winds is 
expected to affect the waters from 22N to 25N west of 133W along 
the dissipating frontal boundary Wednesday and Wednesday night. 
Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will start to decrease 
the second half of the week.