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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251012
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC FRI JUL 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...                                         
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE AT 25/0900 IS NEAR 12.2N 
134.4W. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE 
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE THAT ARE ISSUED 
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP2. 
THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE ARE ISSUED 
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ22 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMEP2. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 132W AND 135W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N105W 07N102W...MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS 
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS 
STRONG FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 97W AND 105W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 111W/112W FROM NORTHWEST TO 
SOUTHEAST...TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG  
FROM 07N TO 16N BETWEEN 107W AND 116W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 08N78W...TO 08N86W...07N94W... 
09N114W...TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
14N124W...TO 13N131W...AND FROM 13N136W BEYOND 12N140W. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 04N TO 06N 
BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG TO 
THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 03N77W TO 04N80W TO 06N86W TO THE 
EAST OF 86W. NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 136W AND 
140W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 138W AND 140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 134W AND 
136W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 123W AND 126W IN 
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT 
IS NEAR 14N124W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 07N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 120W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 35N126W...TO A 
29N132W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 19N135W. COMPARATIVELY 
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE TROUGH WITHIN 400 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 21N140W BEYOND 32N129W. 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 21N109W OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. 

AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN WESTERN NEW 
MEXICO NEAR 35N108W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO AND 
THE U.S.A. FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 90W AND 120W.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20 TO 25 
KNOT WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING INTO THIS 
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT 
HOURS OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE 
SEA HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TO 9 FEET DURING EACH PULSE.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER PULSE OF NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 
TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY 
AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN DURING THE LATE NIGHT 
HOURS OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND THE EARLY 
AFTERNOON. THE SEA HEIGHTS SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM AROUND 8 FEET 
WITH EACH PULSE. 

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N134W TO 28N132W AND TO 
22N127W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS BETWEEN THE 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT 
IS NEAR ...IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT TRADE WINDS 
FROM 13N TO 18N TO THE WEST OF 125W WITH SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET. 
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST DURING THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS 
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING A SMALL AREA OF 20 TO 25 KNOT 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 117W AND 121W 
BASED ON AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH TO 20 KNOTS OR LESS IN 12 TO 18 HOURS. 

$$ 
MT



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Page last modified: Friday, 25-Jul-2014 10:12:14 UTC