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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC SUN MAY 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW 
NEAR 12N132W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS OBSERVED WITHIN 270 NM NE QUADRANT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FRESH 
TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 210 NM N QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH 
SEAS OF 9 TO 10 FT. THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT REACHES NEAR 14N133W MON MORNING. THE LOW 
WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 
STARTING MON WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AND 
WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES N-NW TO NEAR 17N136W BY TUE 
MORNING.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED NEAR 100W FROM 02N TO 12W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS OBSERVED 
FROM 05N TO 13N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO 
CONTINUE W AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS 
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS 
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOUND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WAS FROM 02N TO 10N E OF 87W. A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS 
ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 08N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 107W AND 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 15N W OF 120W...THE LAST OF A SERIES OF UPPER IMPULSES IS 
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...BAJA CALIFORNIA 
NORTE AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO. RIDGING BUILDING WESTWARD BEHIND 
THIS TROUGH IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW 
ALONG THE BAJA COAST...BUT GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADIENT FLOW 
WILL PULSE UPWARD THIS EVENING MAINLY WITHING 200 NM SOUTH OF 
PUNTA EUGENIA. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 4 TO 6 FT N OF 20N OFF THE 
BAJA COAST...BUT 5 TO 7 FT BETWEEN 15N AND 20N DUE THE LINGERING 
PRESENCE OF LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF 
SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL REINFORCE WAVE HEIGHTS EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...MAINTAINING 5 TO 7 FT SEAS AND BRINGING POTENTIALLY ROUGH 
SURF TO THE MEXICAN COAST FROM TEHUANTEPEC TO MANZANILLO.

S OF 15N W OF 110W...A SHARP UPPER RIDGE REACHES EAST TO WEST 
ALONG 10N OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH COSTA RICA...NORTH OF AN 
UPPER TROUGH. THE DIVERGENCE ALOFT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS 
SUPPORTING CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE 
NORTH OF 02N AND WEST OF 87W MAINLY ALONG 06N. RELATIVELY LOWER 
PRESSURE IN THIS AREA IS INTERACTING WITH RIDGING REACHING INTO 
THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF FRESH TO 
STRONG GAP WIND FLOW THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT. SEAS 
ARE ALREADY 5 TO 7 FT OVERALL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF LONGER 
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL LINGERING IN THE AREA...AND ADDITIONAL GAP 
WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW A PLUME OF SEAS TO 8 FT AS FAR WEST AS 90W 
TONIGHT OFF PAPAGAYO. ANOTHER ROUND OF LONGER PERIOD SOUTHERLY 
SWELL WILL CROSS NORTH OF THE EQUATOR TONIGHT...REINFORCING 5 TO 
7 FT SEAS AND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUGH SURF TO THE 
CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST MON AND TUE. FARTHER WEST...A 1009 MB LOW 
PRES IS ANALYZED NEAR 08N117W. GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK SHOWING THE LOW PRES 
GRADUALLY DRIFTING WEST ALONG THE ITCZ. LOOKING AHEAD TO MID 
WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 
DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER LOW PRES NEAR 12N105W THE DEVELOPING 
SLOWLY AS IT DRIFTS NW...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME DISCORD 
AMONG MODELS ON EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE 
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. 

ELSEWHERE...1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA 
NEAR 44N136W EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 30N125W TO THE ISLAS 
REVILLAGIGEDO. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY 
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE MORNING. ASIDE FROM 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE...PRIMARILY MODERATE TO 
FRESH TRADE WINDS LIE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS. FRESH TO STRONG SE 
FLOW WAS NOTED IN A 17 UTC RAPIDSCAT PASS...BETWEEN THE RIDGE 
AND A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE RIDGE NEAR 
30N143W. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT SHIFTS 
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NW CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 
MON. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND 
RELATED SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT N OF 25N W OF 137W WILL SUBSIDE 
THROUGH MON NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 08N137W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED WEST OF THE LOW PRES 
THROUGH 140W ALONG THE ITCZ...BUT AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS 
AND NEARBY TOGA-TAO BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE ONLY LIGHT TO 
MODERATE WINDS AROUND THIS LOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE 
THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 
12N132W SHIFTS N OF THE AREA.

$$ 
CHRISTENSEN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 24-May-2015 21:35:48 UTC