239 
AXPZ20 KNHC 250250
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jun 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N82W to low pressure
1006 mb near 09N91W to 12.5N105W to 12N118W to 09N125W. The ITCZ
extends from 09N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted north of 01N and east of 80W,
and from 08N to 12N between 112W and 125W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is active from 06N to 11N between 82W and 89W,
from 08.5N to 12.5N between 90.5W and 95W, and from 07N to 14N 
between 101W and 112W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong northerly winds continue across and downstream 
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 14.5N this evening, where seas
are 6 to 8 ft. These winds are due to a tight pressure gradient 
between modest high pressure over the eastern Gulf of America  
and 1006 mb low pressure along the monsoon trough near 09N91W. 
Elsewhere, broad high pressure is control from the northeastern 
Pacific north of 12N and west of 110W. This pattern is 
supporting gentle to moderate NW breezes north of 20N except for
fresh westerly winds funneling around the coast of Cabo San 
Lucas. Combined seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail off Baja California, 1
to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 5 ft off southern 
Mexico outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where southerly 
swell continues. A middle-level low pressure center offshore of
Colima and Michoacan continues to support active convection,
currently north of 17N and within 210 nm of the coasts from
Michoacan to northern Nayarit. 

For the forecast, the strong northerly gap winds will continue 
across the Tehuantepec area through Thu as low pressure to the 
west of Papagayo becomes better organized as it shifts south of 
Tehuantepec Wed through Fri night. Expect the fresh to strong gap
winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu
night. Farther north, broad high pressure will continue 
to support moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds across the 
Baja California waters through Thu as high pressure remains
centered to the northwest. Looking ahead, expect fresh to 
strong E to SE winds and rough seas off western Oaxaca by late 
Fri, expanding to the nearshore waters of Guerrero by Sat as the
low pressure shifts westward and offshore of the coasts. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region
northward to northern Nicaragua tonight, and extend W-SW to near
93W, then turn NE and into a broad 1006 mb low pressure area 
centered near 09N91W. Scattered moderate to strong convection 
continues to the northwest of the low pressure center, to the 
south of 12.5N and offshore of Guatemala and Chiapas, Mexico. 
Seas are 5 to 7 ft downstream of Papagayo, and 7 to 9 ft to the 
north of the low pressure. Gentle SW to W breezes and 4 to 6 ft 
seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere south of 10N. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection continues across much of Costa Rica
and extends southwestward and offshore to near 89W. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue 
across the Papagayo region through Wed morning as 1006 mb low 
pressure near 09N91W gradually becomes better organized, and 
shifts slowly westward. Theses fresh to strong winds will  
expand across the waters offshore of El Salvador tonight and 
offshore of Guatemala Wed as the low moves south of those 
waters. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this low pressure system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by this weekend while the system 
moves slowly west-northwestward off the coast of southern Mexico.
There is a low chance of development within the next two days, 
but a high chance within the next seven days. Cross-equatorial S 
swell will build across the regional waters Fri night through the
weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Broad high pressure dominates the pattern over the northeast
Pacific north of 12N and west of 110W. This pattern is 
supporting gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas 
east of 130W, and moderate to fresh NE trade winds and seas 5 to
8 ft west of 130W. Moderate S to SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in 
S to SW swell are noted south of 10N, with gentle breezes and 4 
to 6 ft seas in SW swell noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are 
expected north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W through Thu
as high pressure continues to the northwest. Winds will diminish
slightly east of 130W on Wed as the high weakens. Seas north of 
10N will subside modestly through Thu. Elsewhere, mixed S and SE 
swell will move through the equatorial waters over the next 
several days, promoting rough seas to 8 ft south of 05N through 
late this week.

$$
Stripling