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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020946
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN AUG 02 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF 15N139.5W AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE 
OF A LINE FROM 11N128W TO 13N137W. E-SE 20-33 KT WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TODAY FROM 12-19N BETWEEN 137-140W WITH SEAS OF 11-25 
FT. E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST ELSEWHERE FROM 11-24N 
BETWEEN 135-140WW WITH 8-11 FT PRIMARILY DUE TO A BROAD MIX OF 
SWELL. EXPECT THE E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
FROM 13-22N W OF 138W TONIGHT WITH MIXED SWELL RESULTING IN 
COMBINED SEAS OF 7-9 FT. CONDITIONS SHOULD SHIFT W OF 140W ON 
MON EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO MARINE ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY 
THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
HFOTCMCP4/WTPA24 PHFO. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED N OF 08N ALONG 89W AND HAS BEEN 
PROGRESSING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WILL 
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF COSTA RICA AND 
NICARAGUA TODAY. THE WAVE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LOSE IDENTITY 
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 06-16N ALONG 112W AND HAS BEEN 
MOVING W AT ABOUT 18 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED S OF 11N WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 
A WEAK 1006 MB SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE
NEAR 10N TODAY...AND TRACK W ON MON-TUE WHILE THE PARENT WAVE 
LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA AT  
08N78W TO 08N85W THEN TURNS SW TO NEAR 06N95W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH 
CONTINUES W-NW TO A TROPICAL WAVE AT 09N112W...THEN DIPS SW TO 
06N129W THEN NW TO 08N138W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY IN THE BROAD 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO. 

EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR GUILLERMO AND THE TROPICAL 
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITHIN 90 NM OF 08N78W AND 
11.5N101.5W...WITHIN 30 NM OF 13N91W...AND ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 
90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N102W TO 09N111W AND ALSO 
WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 07N119W TO 09N140W.  

...DISCUSSION...

A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N127W WITH A RIDGE  
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA THERMAL TROUGH WILL SUPPORT 
NORTHWESTERLY 15-20 KT FLOW WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM OF BAJA THROUGH 
TUE WITH SEAS OF 5-7 FT.  

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF ONLY 15-20 KT AT 
SUNRISE TODAY RESULTING IN AN AREA OF 7-8 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-
SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. 
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE DRAINAGE FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH 
A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF ENE 20-25 KT WINDS ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE. 

$$
NELSON


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Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Aug-2015 09:46:54 UTC