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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.4N 118.7W AT 27/2100 
UTC MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 
IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
60 KT. JIMENA CONTINUES TO QUICKLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS 
NOTED IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. NUMEROUS BANDING FEATURES 
ARE SEEN COILING AROUND THE CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION 
CONSISTING OF THE NUMEROUS TYPE INTENSITY WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
CENTER. THE BANDING FEATURES CONSIST OF NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF A LINE 13N120W TO 15N117W...AND 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS WITHIN 45 NM OF 
A LINE 11N117W TO 10N119W TO 11N121.5W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM W 
AND 180 NM E SEMICIRCLES OF JIMENA. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO REACH 
HURRICANE STRENGTH LATE TONIGHT NEAR 12.5N 120.6W PER LATEST NHC 
ADVISORY....AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD 
UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS N. PLEASE 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 12.9N 
140.8W AT 27/2100 UTC MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 982 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 
80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL 
FORCE WINDS ARE IMPACTING THE AREA FROM 12N-14.5N W OF 139W WITH 
SEAS OF 13-19 FT. IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO PULL 
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH FRI...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 
TROPICAL FORCE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 30 KT EARLY ON 
FRI...AND TO 20 KT OR LESS FRI AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SEAS OF 8-10 
FT IN MIXED SWELLS WILL LINGER FROM 12N-119N W OF 137W DURING 
FRI MORNING...AND SUBSIDE TO 8 FT BY FRI AFTERNOON WITH THESE 
CONDITIONS SHIFTING W OF 140W BY EARLY ON FRI EVENING. PLEASE 
SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
HFOTCMCP3/WTPA23 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N77W TO 06N85W TO 05N83W 
TO 09N92W TO 09N100W TO 09N108W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS NOT PRESENTLY  
IDENTIFIABLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 240 
NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 102W-108W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W 
...BETWEEN 91W-93W AND 96W-98W.

...DISCUSSION... 

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N129W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N110W. OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE IGNACIO 
AND TROPICAL STORM JIMENA...GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE 
NOTED ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
LOCATED NW OF THE AREA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FAR NW WATERS FRI 
WHILE DISSIPATING. 

LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN THE 17-18 
SECOND RANGE HAS REACHED THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS 
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THESE 
COASTS. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF SW SWELL WILL NEAR AND ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE S CENTRAL 
WATERS ON FRI. 

GAP WINDS...                                                  
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL AGAIN FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GULF LATE TONIGHT UNTO EARLY FRI MORNING...AND AGAIN 
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH SEAS OF ABOUT 8-9 FT. 
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY 
EVENINGS. 

$$
AGUIRRE


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Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Aug-2015 22:04:52 UTC