000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102158 AAA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri May 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N76.5W to 11.5N96W to 09N107W.
The ITCZ continues from 09N107W to 05N127W to beyond 08.5N140W. 
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 
12.5N between 85W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 04.5N to 07N between 125W and 129W, and from 06.5N to
13.5N W of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

The NE Pacific ridge is centered well NW of the area and extends
southward into the tropical northeastern Pacific, yielding a 
weak pressure gradient across the regional waters. Gentle to 
moderate NW to N winds prevail across the Baja California 
offshore waters, and extend southward to the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open waters
off Mexico as well as inside the Gulf of California. Recent 
satellite altimeter data shows seas remain in the 6-8 ft range 
offshore Baja California, dominated by NW swell. Elsewhere over 
the open waters off Mexico, seas are in the 4-6 ft range in SW 
swell. In the Gulf of California, seas of 1-3 ft are noted, 
except to 4 ft in SW swell across the entrance.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate northwesterly winds will 
prevail off the Baja California waters through the middle of 
next week, with small areas of fresh winds developing along the
coasts during the late afternoon and evening hours through Sat. 
Northwest swell moving through the regional waters will maintain 
seas to 8 ft through early Sat before gradually subsiding to 6 ft
or less through early next week. Gentle to locally moderate 
winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the open 
offshore waters of Mexico through the middle of next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Weak low pressure prevails across the northeastern Tropical 
Pacific and the adjacent western Caribbean today. This pattern is
producing gentle to locally moderate S to SW winds south of the 
monsoon trough, roughly along 09N-10N, with light to gentle 
winds N of the monsoon trough. Recent satellite altimeter data
shows that southerly swell is producing seas in the 5-6 ft range
between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, and 3-5 ft 
elsewhere.

Santa Maria and Fuego Volcanoes in Guatemala have been emitting 
narrow streams of ash throughout the day, which has traveled 
west and southwestward to near the Pacific coasts of 
southwestern Guatemala. This ash may move into the nearshore 
coastal waters across this area this evening and continue to 
disperse. 

For the forecast, little change in the overall pattern is
expected for the next several days. Expect gentle to moderate 
S to SW winds south of the monsoon trough through early next 
week. New southerly swell moving into the regional waters today 
will build seas to 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through 
Sun. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail with moderate 
seas of 6 ft or less.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge extends from high pressure of 1030 mb near 44N138W
southward into the tropical eastern Pacific waters. The pressure
gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trades N of the 
ITCZ to near 17N and W of 120W. Seas over this area are in the 
6-8 ft range in NW swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds are 
elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough, with seas in the 5-7 
ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are found S of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough, with seas of 5-7 ft in mixed SW and SE swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure well N of the region will 
drift westward and weaken through Sun. This will maintain moderate
trade winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, in the trade wind zone N of the
ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W through Sun, before seas subside 
slightly through early next week. NW swell, producing seas to 7 
ft, dominates the waters N of 12N and W of 115W today, and will 
gradually subside to less than 7 ft Sat, then to 6 ft or less 
Mon through early next week.

$$
Stripling