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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290302
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC MON DEC 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08.5N84W TO 05N95W WHERE LOW 
LEVEL WINDS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO ITCZ WHICH EXTENDS TO 
08N134W TO BEYOND 08N140W. THERE WAS NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 
30N128W TO 17N139W. LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED W OF THE AREA NEAR 
25N143W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW 
PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS. 
WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE 
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE 
ITCZ. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE 
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT AND HELP FOR NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE NW WATERS 
BY MON. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN WATERS. 
THIS WILL HELP TO DIMINISH WINDS TO 25 KT BY TUE AFTERNOON. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVERNIGHT AND 
WINDS WILL START TO FUNNEL THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS. WITH THE 
TIMING OF THE WINDS COINCIDING WITH PEAK DRAINAGE FLOW...WINDS 
WILL RAPIDLY RAMP UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH TO 25 KT MON EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE EVENING.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WINDS WILL PULSE TO FRESH TO STRONG DURING 
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND MON NIGHT.  

$$
AL



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Page last modified: Monday, 29-Dec-2014 03:02:19 UTC