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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 020303
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC THU OCT 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 105.4W AT 
02/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 95 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AND ABOUT 395 
NM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 103W 
AND 108W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO 
HEADERS MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 09N90W TO 14N100W THEN 
RESUMES NEAR 15N109W TO 11N120W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 07N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W...AND FROM 11N 
TO 13N BETWEEN 111W AND 114W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 95W AND 104W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 08N BETWEEN 90W AND 
96W...AND FROM 08N TO 13N BETWEEN 115W AND 132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                             
WIND WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A SUSTAINED FRESH S TO SW MONSOONAL 
FLOW S OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E ARE COMBINING WITH LONG 
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
REGION PRODUCING A BROAD AREA OF 8-10 FT SEAS GENERALLY FROM 05N 
TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E 
TRACKS W-NW...THE AREA OF MONSOONAL FLOW WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD 
AND DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY.

OUTSIDE OF THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E... 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A POSITIVELY TILTED MIDDLE TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A BASE OVER THE 
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NEAR 31N116W. REMNANTS OF A 
NOW DIFFUSE COLD FRONT ARE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WITH 
RESIDUAL SWELL GENERATING SEAS OF 8 FT GENERALLY N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 121W AND 130W IN NW SWELL. THE AREA OF SEAS IS EXPECTED 
TO SUBSIDE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY LATE THURSDAY.

LASTLY...N-NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT BRIEFLY N OF 
28N EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH LATE THURSDAY IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NE WATERS AND 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS.

$$
HUFFMAN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 02-Oct-2014 03:03:29 UTC