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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC THU NOV 27 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.  

...SPECIAL FEATURE...    

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN   
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT 
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. AS A RESULT...MINIMAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BLOWING ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOST 
RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING DOWNWIND 
AND SW OF THE GULF TO ABOUT 12N98W. IN ADDITION...AN ALTIMETER 
PASS SHOWED SEAS TO 16 FT DOWNSTREAM AND SW OF THE GULF TO NEAR 
13N96W...AND A SHIP REPORTED NE WINDS OF 33 KT AND SEAS TO 18 FT 
NEAR 11.5N98W. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL 
45-50 KT WINDS TO PERSIST INTO FRI MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS 
MAY BRIEFLY DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY 
EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON 
THROUGH SAT MORNING...THEN TO 25 KT BY LATE SAT AND TO 20 KT OR 
LESS BY LATE SUN MORNING. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 
22-23 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER 
GENERATED BY THIS IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE AS 
NORTHERLY SWELL WELL AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION AND APPROACH 
THE EQUATOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N78W TO 09N90W. ITCZ CONTINUES 
FROM 09N90W TO 10N108W TO 08N120W TO 10N125W TO 08N140W. A  
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF 9.5N109W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 06N 
TO 09N W OF 133W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS 
CONTINUES MAINLY BETWEEN 27N TO 29N WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT. THE 
PRES GRADIENT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION AND WINDS ARE 
FORECAST TO BE 20 KT OR LESS LATE TODAY. 

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING 
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA IS 
PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THESE GAP WIND 
REGIONS. LATEST ASCAT PASS PROVIDED OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT 
ACROSS BOTH GULFS. EXPECT BUILDING SEAS TO 8-10 FT WITH THESE 
EVENTS. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS IN 
THE GULF OF FONSECA AND THROUGH 48 HOURS IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY 
MORNING HOURS.

A STATIONARY FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS AND EXTENDS 30N138W TO 
28N140W. A SECOND COLD FRONT W OF AREA WILL MERGE WITH THIS 
FRONT LATE TODAY. THE MERGED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW 
WATERS REACHING A POSITION FROM 30N136W TO 26N140W TONIGHT AND 
FROM 30N132W TO 25N140W AS A WEAKENING FRONT BY FRI NIGHT. NW 
SWELL TO 12-13 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROPAGATE SE 
ACROSS NW WATERS TODAY.

1024 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 33N125W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE RIDGE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N127W TO 
10N130W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS 
SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND AN 
AREA OF COMBINED SEAS FROM RESIDUAL NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES 
TO 8-10 FT FROM 10N TO 15N W OF TROUGH TO 131W. THE TROUGH WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD WITH THE ASSOCIATED MARINE CONDITIONS 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
GR



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Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Nov-2014 09:24:36 UTC