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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280920
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA IS CENTERED NEAR 12.1N 121.0W AT 28/0900 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES IS 
990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES JIMENA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED 
AND IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE 
COILING AROUND A WELL DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...AND AN 
EYE APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME EVIDENT WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE 
WITHIN 240 NM S AND 120 NM N SEMICIRCLES. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 
JIMENA BECOMING A LARGE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 
2-3 DAYS...WITH AN UNUSUALLY LARGE AREA OF SEAS GREATER THAN 12 
FT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS IT APPROACHES 130W-135W. REFER TO THE 
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ 
WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N78W TO 05N84W TO 09N94W TO 
11N113W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE 
TROUGH BETWEEN 95W AND 99W. AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 15N97W TO 13N101W.

...DISCUSSION... 

HURRICANE IGNACIO IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY 
FROM THE AREA. LINGERING AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS BETWEEN 12N-15N 
WILL MOVE W OF 140W TODAY...AS WILL AN AREA OF 8-10 FT SWELL 
FROM 11N-18N W OF 137W. SEE LATEST CPHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS HFOTCMCP3/WTPA23 PHFO FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 29N129W. A STATIONARY FRONT 
N OF THE AREA EXTENDS FROM 38N130W TO 30N141W. THE FRONT IS 
EXPECTED IS WEAKEN AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS IT 
SLOWLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N OF 27N W OF 128W. 

OUTSIDE OF HURRICANE JIMENA...A LARGE AREA OF GENTLE TO MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS PREVAIL BETWEEN 17N-30N. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...FRESH N-NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FUNNEL 
THROUGH THE GULF THIS MORNING...THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND 
EARLY SAT MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-
20 KT DURING THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. 

$$
MUNDELL


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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Aug-2015 09:20:43 UTC