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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 182147
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA  
AT 06N77W TO 06N91W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A 
TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH WIGGLES W BETWEEN 04-06N TO BEYOND 
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE 
MONSOON TROUGH WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04.5N77W 
TO 07N86W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AND MOVED E OVER THE CENTRAL 
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH ITS MEAN AXIS CURRENTLY 
EXTENDING S FROM 32N110W TO A BASE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS AT 
10N138W. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE LONGWAVE 
PATTERN WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING E INTO 
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ENHANCED E OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N135W TO 11N121W TO 20N111W. A DENSE 
TROPICAL PLUME OF UPPER MOISTURE THAT ORIGINATED FROM ITCZ 
CONVECTION BETWEEN 130-170W...CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN ABOUT 300 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
07N136W TO ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...EVENTUALLY TURNING E ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS E OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS RE-
ENFORCING THE PLUME. 

AT THE LOW LEVELS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL CONTINUES TO MIX WITH 
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL ACROSS THE ENTIRE OPEN WATERS WATERS 
W OF 100W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 28N140W TO 15N98W WITH A 
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PASS E ACROSS THE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE. 
ALTHOUGH EXPECTING ONLY A W-NW 10-15 KT WIND SHIFT ALONG THE 
FRONT...LARGE POST-FRONTAL NW SWELLS WILL DRIVE COMBINED SEAS UP 
TO 17 FT NEAR 30N138W ON FRI. THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL 
ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM 
OF 8-12 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS 
EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY 
EARLY SUN.

NE 15-20 KT TRADES ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE 
ITCZ AND THE RIDGE WITH AN AREA OF EMBEDDED 20-25 KT NE WINDS 
ACROSS THE WATERS FROM 10-15N W OF 135W. THE GRADIENT SHOULD 
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE 20-25 KT 
CONDITIONS SPREADING BOTH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD.  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECTING A MAX OF 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL  
DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE THE NEXT GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR LATE TUE 
NIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES EXPECTED THROUGH 
EARLY SUN THEN 10-15 KT DRAINAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...10-15 KT NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY 
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT BY EARLY FRI...AND THEN CONTINUE 
THROUGH SUN NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 15 KT ON MON. 

$$
NELSON



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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Dec-2014 21:47:28 UTC