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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261005
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED                            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1005 UTC SAT JUL 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE AT 26/0900 UTC IS NEAR  
12.1N 136.1W. GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES 4 
KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 
13N BETWEEN 135W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 120 NM SE SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER. LITTLE CHANGE IN 
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PLEASE 
READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP2/ WTPZ32 KNHC AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E AT 26/0900 UTC IS NEAR 
13.4N 106.3W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD 12 KNOTS. 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. 
PLEASE READ THE LATEST PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP3/WTPZ33 KNHC AND THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N 
BETWEEN 104W AND 108W. 

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTER NEAR 14N126W. THE LOW CENTER IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... 
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 125W AND 126W...AND 
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 13.5N127W. THE CHANCE OF THIS FEATURE 
DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W/117W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD... MOVING 
WESTWARD 15 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N78W IN PANAMA TO 05N94W...TO 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...TO 10N117W...TO THE 1007 MB LOW 
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N126W...TO 13N131W. NUMEROUS 
STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 93W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 03N TO 
08N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...FROM 06N TO 11N BETWEEN 85W AND 
90W...FROM 04N TO 09N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W...FROM 03N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 102W AND 107W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 112W AND 
115W...AND FROM 07N TO 12N BETWEEN 123W AND 125W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

AN ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH HAS LED TO MULTIPLE CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTER. TWO HAVE DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL CYCLONES 
ALREADY. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN CENTRAL PACIFIC IS 
CENTERED NEAR 14N159W WITH UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO 13N142W 
WHERE IT REACHES THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM 30N131W TO 
13N142W. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 15N101W. 
DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE MONSOON TROUGH SE OF THE 
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND BENEATH THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS PROVIDING 
AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO OCCUR...FOCUSED ON THE 
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NOTED ABOVE. 

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PULSE OF 20-25 KT 
WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. 
THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. SEAS 
WILL BUILD TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED SHOWED 20-25 KT WINDS TO 90W. 

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...ANOTHER PULSE OF NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT 
IS EXPECTED N OF 15N IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC TONIGHT INTO 
EARLY SAT. SEAS SHOULD REACH 8 FT WITH THIS PULSE. AN ASCAT PASS 
SHOWED NLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY THIS 
MORNING. 

SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE COVERS THE REST OF 
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 115W. THE 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
RIDGE AND T.S. GENEVIEVE IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF FRESH TRADE 
WINDS FROM 16N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 132W WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FEET. 

$$ 
MT



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Page last modified: Saturday, 26-Jul-2014 10:05:42 UTC