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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291535
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SUN MAR 29 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...  

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO 
BLOW IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC EARLY THIS MORNING BASED ON THE 
MOST RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. IXTEPEC IN THE NORTHERN END OF 
THE GULF IS CURRENTLY REPORTING GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KT. WINDS HAVE 
ALREADY VEERED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL 
DECREASE WINDS FUNNELING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS IN TO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. GLOBAL MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS DECREASING WINDS 
BELOW GALE FORCE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THE GALE 
WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE TODAY AT 1800 UTC. PERSISTENT 
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ENHANCED BY THE 
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS THROUGH TUE MORNING. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N83W TO 04N95W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 04N95W TO 07N110W THEN RESUMES AT 08N113W TO 
06N125W TO 09N134W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND FROM 05N TO 08N BETWEEN 110W 
AND 114W...FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 127W...AND FROM 
02NTO 04N BETWEEN 124W AND 126W. 

DURING LATE WINTER TO EARLY SPRING SEASONS...FROM LATE FEBRUARY 
TO EARLY APRIL OF EACH YEAR...A DOUBLE ITCZ CAN BE PRESENT 
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ONE ON EACH SIDE OF THE EQUATOR. 
TODAY...A TROUGH IS ANALYZED S OF THE EQUATOR FROM 03.4S84W TO 
05S88W TO 04S93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS SEEN ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 02S TO 09S BETWEEN 83W AND 91W. COMPUTER 
MODEL SUGGESTS AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN ITCZ OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                

A 1029 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 35N134W EXTENDS A 
RIDGE SE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS TO NEAR 20N114W. SOUTH OF 
THE RIDGE...THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOWER PRES 
ALONG THE ITCZ IS RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADEWINDS 
FROM 13N TO 20N W OF 128W...WHERE SEAS ARE 8-12 FT IN MIXED NE 
WIND WAVES AND LONG PERIOD CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY SWELLS. 
THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE TRADES WILL DECREASE ON MON AS HIGH 
PRES MOVES SW AND WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. 
THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA BY 
MON MORNING.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL WATERS AND EXTENDS 
FROM 14N136W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRES NEAR 11N136W TO NEAR 07N137W. 
A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS COVERING FROM 12N TO 
14.5N BETWEEN 135W AND 138W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 11N TO 
12N BETWEEN 134W AND 135W. ANOTHER TROUGH...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 
ITCZ LIES FROM 11N112W TO 04N111W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS FROM 09N TO 11N BETWEEN 112W AND 115W...AND NEAR 05N111W.

E OF 110W...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GAP WIND REGIONS...WINDS 
ARE GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE 
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS HELPING TO INDUCE SOME CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
FROM 04N TO 06N E OF 79W TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH A TROUGH 
JUST INLAND.

LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE 
FORECAST WATERS...AND ARE REACHING THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND 
MEXICAN COASTLINES THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE 
LIKELY GENERATING VERY LARGE AND POWERFUL WAVES...AND DANGEROUS 
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE SURF ZONE TODAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY FADE 
DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. PRESENTLY...ADDITIONAL PULSES OF NW 
SWELL ARE REACHING THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION AND 
WILL MIX WITH THE SOUTHERLY SWELL ALREADY IN PLACE TO BUILD SEAS 
TO 9 FT ACROSS THE N WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 
EXPECT SEAS OF 8-9 FT PRIMARILY IN NW SWELL NW OF LINE FROM 
30N118W TO 23N130W TO 18N140W BY TUE MORNING.

GAP WINDS...

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...PULSING OF NOCTURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO THROUGH TUE MORNING...REACHING 20-25 
KT FROM 0600 TO 1200 UTC...WITH SEAS OF 7-8 FT THROUGH AND 
DOWNWIND OF THE GULF.

$$
GR


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Page last modified: Sunday, 29-Mar-2015 15:35:54 UTC