AXPZ20 KNHC 190930
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Aug 19 2017
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Kenneth is centered near 15.6N 120.2W at 0900
UTC, moving WNW at 13 kt. Minimum central pressure is estimated
at 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45
kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is primarily
within 120 nm SW of the center. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10N to 13N between
121W and 125W. The system is expected to move WNW then NW and
intensify during the next 2-3 days. Refer to National Hurricane
Center Forecast Advisory under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23
KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas Forecast under WMO/AWIPS
headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for additional information.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W north of 08N, moving W
at 15-20 kt. Minimal convection is associated with the wave.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W from 10N to 20N, moving
W at 15 kt. Minimal convection is also associated with this wave.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N114W...then resumes
from 13N123W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
is near the coast of Central America from 06N to 08N between 81W
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A low level trough will prevail over Baja California and Gulf of
California through Mon night. A ridge will continue west of the
Baja California, supporting moderate NW winds this weekend west
of the peninsula. The pres gradient will tighten each evening,
with fresh NW flow expected within 90 nm of the Baja coast and 3
to 6 ft seas.
Gulf of California...light to gentle southerly flow will persist
across the Gulf of California this weekend, except a moderate to
locally fresh breeze will prevail over the waters N of 29.5N.
Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh northerly drainage winds are expected
during the overnight hours the next few days with seas building
to 6-7 ft.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gulf of Papagayo: moderate nocturnal drainage flow is expected
through the weekend.
Otherwise, light and variable to gentle NE to E flow expected N
of the monsoon trough through early Mon, while moderate to
locally fresh southerly winds are expected S of the monsoon
trough with 3 to 6 ft seas throughout.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure ridge extends across the northern waters. Outside
the influence of TS Kenneth, moderate locally fresh anticyclonic
flow is forecast N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W.