AXPZ20 KNHC 262210 CCA
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 26 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 06N80W to 09N95W to 08N110W to a
low pressure area near 13N128W 1009 mb to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection are from 05N to 13N
between 88W and 115W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection
are within 120 nm mainly sw of the low center.
A tropical wave is moving westward at around 20 kt from the
western Caribbean and Central America this evening, with an axis
that extends from the sw Caribbean to Panama near 09N78W to
04N78W. No deep convection is currentlly noted with the portion
of the wave over the Pacific waters.
A surface ridge axis extends from high pressure north of the
area to 25N125W to near 15N105W. Fresh to strong northerly winds
between this ridge and a front over the interior western United
States support combined seas just under 8 ft over our forecast
waters along 30N several hundred miles west of Baja California.
The ridge will intensify over the next few days which will
result in fresh northerly winds expanding southward to near 25N
between 123W and 130W along with combined seas of 8 to 9 ft.
Between the ridge axis and 17N, mainly moderate northeasterly
trades prevail with seas between 5 and 7 ft.
The pressure gradient between low pressure along the monsoon
trough near 13N128W and the ridge to the north is supporting
fresh to occasionally strong northeasterly winds within a couple
hundred miles northwest of the low. The ridge to the north will
intensify over the next few days which result in a broader area
of fresh to strong winds with seas increasing to 8 to 9 ft
within a couple hundred nm north of the low Mon and Tue, before
the system exits our area to the west.
High pressure over the northern Gulf of Mexico will support
enhanced Gulf of Tehuantepec Gap winds to 25 kt each night for
the next several days. Residual swell from earlier strong winds
from The Gulf of Papagayo will subside below 8 ft through this
evening. Additional increased winds are forecast each night over
the Gulf of Papagayo. However, winds there will only increase
marginally to 15 to 20 kt.
A very broad area of sw swell will cross the equator tonight and
propagate over the southern waters south of the monsoon trough
mainly west of 95W through the first half of next week.