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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031004
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC TUE MAR 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

.NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N77W. 

INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...                
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 08N84W 05N91W 05N98W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 05N98W TO 07N120W BEYOND 07N140W. CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N 
TO 05N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W...FROM 08N TO 09N BETWEEN 104W AND 
108W...AND FROM 06N TO 08N BETWEEN 126W AND 140W. 

...DISCUSSION... 

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N120W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N124W TO 13N127W. 
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY FROM 16N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 116W AND 140W. THE TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N111W TO 
21N120W TO 17N133W. FROM 08N TO 23N W OF 125W NE TO E WINDS 20 
TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. EXPECT NE WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 
SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 FEET TO 12 FEET FROM 08N TO 23N FROM 
125W WESTWARD. THE WIND SPEEDS EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN TO LESS THAN 
20 KNOTS AFTER 24 HOURS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 8 TO 
11 FOOT RANGE WITH A SWELL FROM THE NW TO NORTH. AN AREA OF 
TRADE WIND FLOW...20 TO 25 KNOTS...WILL CONTINUE FROM 10N TO 20N 
FROM 116W WESTWARD. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 FEET TO 10 
FEET. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N142W...THROUGH 32N138W TO 26N132W TO 
22N124W. 

GAP WIND FLOW DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA E OF 120W...WITH ALL 
THE TYPICAL GAP AREAS SEEING MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW SPILLING 
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN. MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL SEE PEAK WINDS DUE 
TO NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING 
HOURS THROUGH EARLY WED.

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THIS AREA STARTS WITH A SMALL AREA OF 
30 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AFFECTED AREA. THE 30 
KNOT WINDS ARE SURROUNDED BY A COMPARATIVELY LARGER AREA OF 20 
TO 25 KNOT WINDS. THE SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 10 FEET.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL SLOW DOWN WITH TIME...IN 6-HOUR INCREMENTS. 
THE AREA OF 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WILL SHRINK IN SIZE IN 6-
HOUR INCREMENTS. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WITH 
SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET BY 24 HOURS. WE STILL EXPECT A 40 
KNOT GALE WIND EVENT BY FRIDAY AROUND 06/1200 UTC OR SO.

THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE... 
WITH NOCTURNAL PULSES REACHING 20-25 KT TUE NIGHT. FRESH NE 
WINDS ALSO LIKELY IN AND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF FONSECA EACH 
NIGHT DURING THE NIGHT TIME MAX ACROSS PAPAGAYO.

THE GULF OF PANAMA...NORTHERLY WINDS 15-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO 
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF AND DOWNSTREAM TO NEAR 05N FOR THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-9 FT THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$ 
MT



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Mar-2015 10:05:08 UTC