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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032135
TWDEP 

TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                     
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED JUN 03 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY  
THROUGH 2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AT 03/2100 UTC...HURRICANE BLANCA IS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 104.7W. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 945 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED INCREASED TO 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 101W 
AND 107W. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF BLANCA IS FORECAST DURING 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. LITTLE OVERALL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY... 
THEN BLANCA SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE TO THE N-NW. 
SWELLS GENERATED BY BLANCA WILL REACH THE SW COAST OF MEXICO 
TODAY...SPREAD N INTO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHERN 
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA STARTING THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO 
SPREAD N ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO FRI. 
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP 
CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST 
ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP2/MIATCMEP2 AND 
WTPZ42/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

AT 03/2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ANDRES CENTER IS NEAR 19.9N 
125.4W AND MOVING NW OR 320 DEG AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 
NM NE QUADRANT OF CENTER. ANDRES IS MOVING ACROSS INCREASING 
COOLER SEA SURFACE WATERS AND IS ENTRAINING DRY AIR. THE 
FORECAST CALLS FOR ANDRES TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THU 
NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD 
TODAY BEFORE STALLING AND TAKING A TURN TO THE E-SE THU. SWELLS 
GENERATED BY ANDRES ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE WEST 
COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY 
TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. REFER 
TO LATEST NHC PUBLIC/FORECAST ADVISORIES UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPEP1/MIATCMEP1 AND WTPZ31/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES/LOWS...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS TO THE N OF 07N ALONG 89W AND HAS BEEN 
PROGRESSING W AROUND 5-10 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 07N BETWEEN 86W AND 91W. THE WAVE IS 
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SLOW AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE BROADER 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA LATER IN THE WEEK. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FROM 10N129W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 10N BETWEEN 130W AND 134W. 

...DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE OF 1026 MB CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR 37N138W 
EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 27N120W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
BETWEEN THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH TRADE 
WINDS PRIMARILY W OF 135W. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SHIFT 
NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS 
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. SEAS OVER 8 FT 
PRIMARILY IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND SW SWELL HAVE MERGED WITH 
THOSE ASSOCIATED WITH ANDRES. 

LONG-PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL IS AFFECTING THE ENTIRE 
PACIFIC COAST FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SOUTHWARD. THIS SWELL IS 
MIXING WITH SWELLS FROM ANDRES AND BLANCA ALONG THE COAST OF 
MEXICO. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE ALONG THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA THROUGH EARLY FRI. 

GAP WINDS...                                                    
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING TO THE SW 
ASSOCIATED WITH BLANCA IS SUPPORTING A PULSE OF FRESH TO STRONG 
N-NE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL 
DRAINAGE FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY 
THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH PUSHES EASTWARD.

$$ 
FORMOSA


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 03-Jun-2015 21:36:12 UTC