092 
AXPZ20 KNHC 180943
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Erick is centered near 13.3N 95.4W, or about
155 nm south-southeast of Puerto Angel, Mexico and about 260 nm 
southeast of Punta Maldonado at at 18/0900 UTC, moving northwest
at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum 
sustained wind speed has increased to 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. 
Latest satellite imagery shows that cyclone is gradually getting
better organized as noted by its banding features becoming more 
prominent with very deep convection. This convection is observed
as the numerous strong type within 90 nm of the center, except 
within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Numerous moderate
to strong convection is seen within 30 nm either side of a line 
from 15N98W to 15N94W and to 14N91W and to 10N86W. Peak seas are 
near 18 ft (5.8 m). Erick is forecast to maintain its present 
motion along with a gradual increase in forward speed later today
or tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is 
expected to approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight 
and move inland or be near the coast on Thu. Rapid strengthening 
is expected today, and the system may reach major hurricane 
strength when it approaches the coast of southern Mexico Thu. 
Mariners should use extreme caution navigating the offshore 
waters of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and take the necessary action 
to avoid the hazardous marine conditions related to Tropical 
Storm Erick.

Tropical Storm Erick could produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 
inches, with maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican 
states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-
threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep 
terrain. Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of
8 inches, are expected across the Mexican states of Chiapas, 
Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. Swells generated by Erick are 
expected to begin affecting the coast of southern Mexico later
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf 
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your 
local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued
by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Erick NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 
across the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border and to 12N88W. It resumes
southwest of Tropical Storm Erick near 09N100W to 10N113W and to
09N125W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
09N130W and to beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection related
to Tropical Storm Erick, scattered moderate convection is seen
within 60 nm of the ITCZ west of 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest
information on Tropical Storm Erick.

Elsewhere, a weak trough, remnants of Dalila, is analyzed from 
near 21N114W to near 17N117W. No significant convection is 
occurring with this feature. Otherwise, high pressure is present 
west of Baja California allowing for generally moderate or weaker
winds. Light to gentle southeast to south winds are over the 
Gulf of California, except in the far southern section where 
moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are present. Seas are 
3 ft are less over the Gulf, except for seas of 3 to 4 ft over 
the southern section of the Gulf. Moderate seas prevail across 
the offshore waters. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erick will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 13.9N 96.2W this afternoon with maximum sustained 
winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, move to near 15.0N 97.3W late tonight 
with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt and inland near 
16.7N 98.8W Thu afternoon, then begin to weaken, dissipating Fri 
afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area 
will support pulsing moderate to fresh northwest to north winds 
across the Baja California Norte offshore waters through the 
forecast period. Along with these winds rough northwest to north 
swell will build over the Baja waters through Thu night. The 
swell will be reinforced by a new set of northwest to north 
starting Fri. Moderate to fresh south to southwest over the 
southern part of the Gulf of California will diminish today Winds
will be mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere during the period. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please read the Special Features section for the latest
information on Tropical Storm Erick.

Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere from offshore 
Colombia northward, with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, 
with moderate to rough seas in southerly swell.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Erick will strengthen to a 
hurricane near 13.9N 96.2W this afternoon with maximum sustained 
winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, move to near 15.0N 97.3W late tonight 
with maximum sustained winds 95 kt gusts 115 kt and inland near 
16.7N 98.8W Thu afternoon, then begin to weaken, dissipating Fri 
afternoon.

Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds will remain offshore Ecuador 
to the Galapagos Islands through the next few days. Winds will be
moderate or weaker offshore Colombia northward, except pulse to 
mostly fresh speeds in the Papagayo region starting Thu morning. 
Meanwhile, moderate seas off Ecuador will prevails through the 
rest of the week. Moderate seas will be mainly offshore Colombia 
northward through Wed, except higher near T.S. Erick, subsiding 
afterward. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on conditions
related to Tropical Storm Erick.

Broad surface ridging extend from a high well northwest of the 
discussion area to across the open waters north of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ and west of about 115W. Winds are mainly 
moderate or weaker across the open waters, both north and south 
of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, locally fresh south of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are mainly moderate across the open
waters in mixed southerly and northerly swells.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area wil shift
slightly southward through Fri. Moderate to fresh northeast to 
east winds over the northwest part of the area will expand in 
coverage through the end of the week. A slight increase in seas 
is expected across the northern waters east of 130W through Thu 
as new north to northeast well moves into the regional waters, 
spreading west-southwestward to 140W by the end of the week.

$$
Aguirre