844 
AXPZ20 KNHC 230723
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 118W from 02N to 17N, moving 
westward around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is
from 08N to 14N between 109W and 121W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 09N76W to
across portions of Panama and Costa Rica to 07N96W to 10N121W.
The ITCZ extends from 10N121W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and
80.5W, from 01.5N to 09N between 92W and 99W, and within 150 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 130W and 140W. Similar convection
is noted within 150 nm of the coasts of Guatemala and El
Salvador.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the Gulf of California with a 
broad and expansive ridge west of Baja California. This pressure 
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds across the 
offshore waters of Mexico per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, 
including in the Gulf of California, except fresh to strong N 
winds in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a locally tight
pressure gradient and nocturnal drainage flow, and locally fresh
near Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the offshore 
waters, dominated by S to SW swell, except to 7 ft in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong north gap 
winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Thu as a 
diurnal surface trough is expected to move from the Yucatan 
Peninsula to Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will then pulse to moderate 
to fresh there thereafter, possibly increasing back to fresh to 
strong early next week. Winds are likely to freshen west of Baja 
California beginning later today and tonight as the pressure 
gradient tightens slightly, then increase to fresh to strong 
mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro by the end of the week and into 
the weekend. Seas may build to around 8 ft there by the start of 
the weekend. Mainly moderate or weaker winds will prevail 
elsewhere. Seas will be 4 to 6 ft across the open waters, 
diminishing to 3 to 5 ft outside of off Baja California Norte by 
the weekend. Seas will be 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California 
through the next several days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf 
of Papagayo region. Moderate southerly winds are over the waters 
south of the monsoon trough with light and variable winds 
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in S 
to SW swell, except to 7 ft near and downwind of the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Active convection is over the offshore waters of 
Panama, Colombia and Costa Rica, as well as now within 150 nm of
the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador where locally higher
winds and seas are possible.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northeast to east 
winds will pulse at night in the Gulf of Papagayo through today,
then pulse moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally 
fresh winds associated with these gap winds will affect the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through Thu. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue south
of the monsoon trough through the next several days. Seas will 
subside somewhat across the waters by the end of the week, then 
build back slightly in new S to SW swell this weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is analyzed centered well northwest of the 
discussion area. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 
around 23N117W. A pair of tropical waves are south of the ridge 
as described above, one west of the area near 143W and one near 
118W. Winds near 140W near the departed wave are fresh to 
locally strong, with seas of 8 to 10 ft in the vicinity. Moderate
to fresh trades are elsewhere from roughly 10N to 19N between
110W and 140W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate 
northeast to east trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough and ITCZ per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, along with 
4 to 6 ft seas. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, winds are 
moderate to locally fresh, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed 
southerly swell.

For the forecast, the tropical wave currently west of the area 
at 143W will continue to move away from the discussion waters, 
with associated winds shifting west of the area later this
morning. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will linger in the wake of the 
tropical wave through the end of the week as the other tropical 
wave, currently near 118W moves westward. Little change in seas 
is forecast elsewhere. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will 
linger from north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to around 20N 
through the week until the second tropical wave exits, with 
little change in winds expected elsewhere.

$$
Lewitsky