000
AXPZ20 KNHC 290254
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jul 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific Low (EP98): The area of low pressure 
located around 1500 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands 
has changed little during the day. Environmental conditions 
appear marginally conducive for some development of this system, 
and a tropical depression could form during the next day or two 
as it moves generally westward around 10 kt and enters the 
Central Pacific basin around midweek. There is a medium chance of
development of this system within the next 48 hours.

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): A large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few hundred 
miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated with a 
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are expected to 
be conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely
to form during the next couple of days while the system moves 
west- northwestward around 15 kt, remaining well offshore of the
southwestern coast of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical
formation within the next 48 hours. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is analyzed along 98W, and N of 04N, moving W at
5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 
15N between 94W and 104W.

A tropical wave is analyzed near 120W from 03N to 20N, moving 
westward around 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the
vicinity of the wave axis.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N115W to 11N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 14N and E of
112W, and from 04N to 16N and W of 118W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See Special Features Section above for information on low
pressure developing SW of the Gulf of Tehuantepec that has the
possibility of tropical formation this week.

Surface troughing extends through the Gulf of California, and 
high pressure prevails over the Baja California waters. The 
pressure gradient between these features is leading to fresh NW 
winds offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro. 
Moderate seas are also present in this region. Elsewhere, strong
N gap winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, as a tightening pressure gradient develops between 
troughing over the Yucatan Peninsula and high pressure over east-
central Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds prevail over the 
remainder of the Mexico offshore waters. Moderate seas in mixed S
and NW swell are noted offshore of southern Mexico, with slight 
seas in the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas
are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through midweek as high 
pressure builds over eastern Mexico and the pressure gradient 
tightens as a result of the low pressure forming to the SW.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh E winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo as the pressure
gradient between higher pressure to the northern and low pressure
to the south funnels gap winds across Central America into the
Pacific. South of the monsoon trough, mainly gentle S to SW 
winds are occurring. Moderate seas prevail over the Central and 
South American waters.

For the forecast, fresh E gap winds and moderate seas will occur
in the Gulf of Papagayo and extend through the waters offshore 
El Salvador and Guatemala tonight as low pressure prevails over 
northern Colombia and another area of low pressure develops and 
strengthens to the west. After a brief lull, pulsing fresh to 
strong winds look to redevelop in the Gulf of Papagayo late this 
week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for information on
two areas of possible tropical development this week. 

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail north of the monsoon 
trough to 25N as ridging prevails to the north. Elsewhere, a 
weak pressure gradient in the northern waters, north of 25N, is 
leading to light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas. 

For the forecast, widespread moderate to fresh N to NE winds and
moderate seas are expected north of the monsoon trough this week
as high pressure builds to the north. 

$$
ERA