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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 221533
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC SAT NOV 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.                       

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N86W TO 1010 MB LOW 
PRES NEAR 09N100W TO 09N111W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 09N111W TO 
1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR 15N118W TO 07N126W TO 08N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N TO 07N E OF 80W...AND FROM 07N 
TO 11N BETWEEN 99W AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 111W AND 117W... 
AND FROM 06N TO 10N W OF 132W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD 
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS PANHANDLES SW 
TO OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THEN W-SW TO A 
BASE NEAR 23N120W. A RIDGE IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 
THE WEST OF THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
NEAR 29N135W. SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS WITH A RELATED DRY AND STABLE 
AIR MASS ARE NOTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA N OF 20N. S OF 20N... 
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RELATIVELY MOIST WITH S-SW WINDS ALOFT E 
OF 120W WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS N OF 
THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH ACTIVITY. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ON 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N86W IS PROVIDING THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT.

AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB HIGH LOCATED 
NEAR 31N139W TO NEAR 20N110W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE 
RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ IS INDUCING 
AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM 09N-24N W OF 125W. 
THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH 
STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. WITHIN THIS AREA OF TRADES...SEAS WILL 
REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 15N118W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 
10N119W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE DRIFTING 
WEST AND BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN THE AREA OF TRADES AND 
ASSOCIATED SEAS BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IN A BROAD AREA EAST OF THE TROUGH 
FROM 08N TO 14N BETWEEN 106W AND 116W...AND AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SW OF THE LOW IN THE 
VICINITY OF 09N121W. 

LONG PERIOD NW SWELLS DOMINATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST WATERS W OF 
110W. THIS SWELL IS MIXING WITH SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES RELATED 
TO THE TRADES. A NEW WAVE OF NW SWELLS HAS REACHED THE NW CORNER 
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL PROPAGATE SE COVERING THE 
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

LOOKING AHEAD...THE NEXT GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP WIND EVENT IS 
FORECAST TO INITIATE TUESDAY MORNING REACHING POSSIBLE GALE 
FORCE CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION...ENSEMBLE MODELS 
INDICATE A HIGH PROBABILITY OF STORM FORCE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE 
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS WITH 
THIS EVENT...CURRENT NWPS GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS INTO A RANGE OF 
25 TO 30 FT WHILE WAVEWATCH3 GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS RANGING 
FROM 20 TO 25 FT. AS THE EVENT NEARS...CONTINUED MODIFICATION TO 
THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE MADE.

$$
HUFFMAN



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Page last modified: Saturday, 22-Nov-2014 15:34:09 UTC