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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191606
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC FRI DEC 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N74W TO 09N85W TO 
06.5N91W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING ON TO 
05N120W TO 04N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM N OF ITCZ W OF 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 28N143W EXTENDS A RIDGE E TO 
28N122W THEN SE TO NEAR 15N102W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE RIDGING AND LOWER PRESSURE TO THE S ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ 
IS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES 
ACROSS THE SW AND W CENTRAL WATERS W OF 120W...WHERE SEAS ARE 
RUNNING GENERALLY 9 TO 12 FT WITH NW SWELL. A COLD FRONT IS 
DRAGGING ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE RIDGE ALONG 30N ACROSS NW 
PORTIONS THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD AND 
GENERALLY REMAIN N OF 29N AND REACH 130W BY SAT MORNING...BEFORE 
BECOMING DIFFUSE. THE TRADEWINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH 
THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS NEW AND 
STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THIS 
COLD FRONT.

AS THE NEW HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E AND SE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE 
AREA...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA IS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE...AND WILL FRESHEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW 
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT ACROSS S PORTIONS TONIGHT 
THROUGH SAT MORNING. WIND AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
MODESTLY AND CONTINUE 15-20 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LARGE NW SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO ENTER NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS 
MORNING AND WILL RAISE SEAS TO 11-16 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER COVERING THE MAJORITY OF 
THE WATERS W OF 95W-100W BY SAT MORNING. PEAK SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
TO 13 FT BY 48 HOURS WHILE SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER CONTINUE TO 
DOMINATE THE WATERS W OF 110W THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THIS LONG PERIOD NW SWELL WILL ARRIVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF 
THE BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF 8-13 FT SEAS AS EARLY AS SAT 
EVENING...WITH 7-10 FT SEAS EXPECTED ALONG THE ENTIRE PACIFIC 
COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA BY EARLY SUN AND CONTINUING THROUGH 
LATE MON BEFORE SUBSIDING.

OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIP 
THE WATERS N OF 28N THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE IMPACT 
OTHER THAN A BRIEF WINDSHIFT BEHIND EACH BOUNDARY.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT A MAXIMUM OF 10-15 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS DURING NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY TONIGHT TO INCREASE 
TO 20 TO 25 KT BY SUNRISE SAT MORNING...TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...MAXIMIZING TO NEAR 30 KT EARLY SUN MORNING...BEFORE 
DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY SUN EVENING.  THROUGH TUE 
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. 
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC 
GALE EVENT WILL OCCUR BY EARLY WED MORNING WITH WINDS 
INCREASING TO 40 KT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...NE 15-20 KT NOCTURNAL PULSES ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN 10-15 KT THROUGH WED. 

$$
STRIPLING



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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Dec-2014 16:06:20 UTC