Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Cent
er on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 202146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

AN ILL-DEFINED MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA AT 05N77W TO 04.5N79W THEN TURNS NW TO 07N89W WHERE 
SCATTEROMETER WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ AXIS.
THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES WSW TO 04N126W TO BEYOND 06N140W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND  
TO THE S OF OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF A LINE FROM 07N83W TO 05N88W TO 04N98W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER AND TO THE N OF THE ITCZ WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11N118W TO 05N128W AND ALSO WITHIN 
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N132W TO 06N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS DECAYING ALONG THE ITCZ WITHIN 120 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 08N108W TO 02N104W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                       

AN UPPER CYCLONE IS OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH A MID TO UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO TO A BASE OVER 
THE TROPICAL EPAC NEAR 10N127W. A 420 NM WIDE BAND OF UPPER 
DEBRIS MOISTURE CONTINUES E OF THIS TROUGH AXIS ORIGINATING IN 
THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 10N116W...AND SPREADING NE ACROSS THE 
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO AT 20N105W AND ACROSS THE NW GULF OF 
MEXICO. ANOTHER MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE 
FAR NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND IS PRECEDED BY A LARGE 
AREA OF UPPER MOISTURE OBSERVED TO THE N OF 28N TO THE W OF 
126W...WITH THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE NOW SPREADING E 
ACROSS THE THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT 36N. OTHERWISE DRY UPPER AIR 
IS NOTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN THESE UPPER 
TROUGHS...ROUGHLY WITHIN 480 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 
30N113W TO 22N140W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED JUST W OF THE AREA AT 07N146W WITH 
A RIDGE EXTENDING E INTO THE DISCUSSION OVER THE WESTERN SEGMENT 
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...AND ENHANCING THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 127W. AN ILL-DEFINED LOW-
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 16N116W TO 09N125W WITH 
CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE TROUGH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. THE 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THIS CONVECTION CONCENTRATES INTO THE 
TROPICAL PLUME ALSO ALREADY MENTIONED. JUST TO E IS ANOTHER 
UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 07N105W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE 
EXTENDING NE TO A CREST AT 15N97W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14N97W TO 11N102W TO 13N107W.  

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM OVER HONDURAS TO A BASE OVER 
THE DEEP TROPICS AT 07N96W. THIS TROUGH EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES 
THE UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW JUST DESCRIBED FROM THE FLOW 
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER E TO W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING W OFF THE 
COAST OF COLOMBIA ALONG 05N TO A CREST NEAR 05N94W. WEAK 
DIFFLUENCE ALONG THIS EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPORTING THE PREVIOUSLY 
DESCRIBED CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 
82-96W. DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM EARLIER ITCZ CONVECTION OVER PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA IS STREAMING NE ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 34N132W TO NEAR 14N102W. NE TRADES 
ARE ENHANCED TO 15-20 KT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 06N TO THE W OF 
115W...WITH SEAS OF 7-10 FT IN MIXED LONG PERIOD NW AND LONG 
PERIOD CROSS-EQUATORIAL S SWELL. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED SEAS WILL 
BE REINFORCED BY A NEW BATCH OF NW SWELL THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE 
DISCUSSION WATERS NW OF A LINE FROM 32N125W TO 22N140W. THE NW 
SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE E REACHING THE NW COAST OF THE 
BAJA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF COMBINED SEAS OF 6-9 FT ON MON... 
AND GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION WATERS N OF 20N 
THROUGH TUE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ON TUE NIGHT 
WITH NW WINDS INCREASING TO 15-25 KT ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N 
E OF 122W TO BAJA PENINSULA ON WED. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH 
AND THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE ON THU.  

$$
NELSON



Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 20-Apr-2014 21:47:09 UTC