040 
AXPZ20 KNHC 130826
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 11N105W to 08N120W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 03N to 07N
east of 85W, and from 03N to 10N between 95W and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak cold front is approaching Guadalupe Island off Baja
California Norte. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed
fresh winds following the front, and moderate to fresh S winds
ahead of the front over the northern Gulf of California. Farther
south, moderate to fresh N winds may still be lingering across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a gap wind event winds down. Light to
gentle breezes persist elsewhere. Wave heights are 5 to 6 ft 
north of Punta Eugenia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere across Mexican 
offshore waters, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the weak cold front approaching Guadalupe 
Island will slow down and weaken as it moves into Baja 
California Norte and the northern Gulf of California later today,
before dissipating tonight into Wed. Strong winds may briefly 
pulse across the northern Gulf of California today ahead of and 
following the front. High pressure building in the wake of the 
front will freshen winds west of the Baja California peninsula 
through mid week, with large NW swell into Fri. Moderate or 
weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will 
prevail elsewhere.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated moderate to 
fresh NE winds continuing across the Papagayo region to about 
90W. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass confirmed wave heights
of 4 to 6 ft in this plume. Light to gentle breezes are observed
elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the
Papagayo region through Fri, pulsing to fresh to strong at night into
mid week. Gentle to moderate winds will persist elsewhere. 
Expect moderate to rough seas in long period SW swell between 
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Wed and Thu. Slight to 
moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A ridge prevails the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate trade winds N of the
ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 6 to 7 
ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft
are noted elsewhere in a mix of swell. 

For the forecast, a weak cold front will move into the US west
coast and Baja California Norte today, then dissipate. High 
pressure will build in the wake of the front, and this pattern 
will support moderate to fresh NE winds north of the ITCZ and 
west of 120W through mid week. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range in NW
swell will move into the waters north of 25N and west of 120W
through mid week, and combine with seas from trade winds from 
10N to 20N west of 130W through the latter part of the week.

$$
Christensen