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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232217
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jul 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

Tropical Storm Frank is centered at 19.1N 110.6W at 2100 UTC, or
about 230 nm south of the southern tip of Baja California. Frank
is moving west-northwest, or 300 degrees at 6 kt. The maximum
sustained winds remain 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt and Estimated
minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Frank continues to move
under northeasterly wind shear, displacing much of the deep
convection to the south of the center. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted within 60 nm north and
120 nm south of the center. Frank is expected to continue moving
northwest during the next couple of days and remain under the
influence of this northeast wind shear. This will prevent Frank
from further intensification, and Frank is no longer expected to
reach hurricane strength. Large S to SE swell from Frank will
impact the Mexican coastlines from the Cabo Corrientes region to
Baja California Sur during the next couple of days and spread
into central portions of the baja peninsula Monday. This will
generate rough and dangerous surf along the local coastlines.
Refer to the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

Tropical Storm Georgette is centered at 13.9N 122.3W at 2100
UTC, or about 885 nm southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California Peninsula. Georgette is moving west-northwest or 285
degrees at 10 kt. The maximum sustained winds have increased
slightly to 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and estimated minimum
central pressure is 996 mb. Satellite imagery this afternoon
shows a more circular pattern of convection surrounding
Georgette with a raged eye gradually developing. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within
75 nm northwest and 120 nm across southeast semicircles.
Georgette is expected to continue to move west-northwest and
intensify into a hurricane during the next 24 hours. Refer to
the latest NHC forecast advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details.

Post-tropical cyclone Estelle was centered at 23.5N139W at 2100
UTC. The estimated pressure was 1012 mb. Satellite imagery shows
a low level cloud swirl surrounding the low with no significant
convection. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through the
weekend as Estelle continues to weaken while moving west-
northwest over cooler waters.

Also see latest high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the wave forecasts
associated with these three systems.

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A tropical wave north of 13N near 97W is exiting the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region and moving into southwestern Mexico and the
adjacent coastal waters. The wave is expected to enhance
overnight convection off the coast of Mexico north of 12N
between 97W and 105W.  

A second tropical wave extends from the Gulf of Honduras
southward to the Pacific waters along 85W. This wave will shift
west across Central America and the adjacent near and offshore
coastal waters during the next 24-36 hours and continue to spawn
active convection.

..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from low pres 1008 mb near 07N74W to
09N95W to 11.5N108W. The ITCZ extends from 09N122W to 08N132W to
07N140W. Clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted within 240 nm n and 180 nm s of the trough
between 80W and 102W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate
convection is noted within 90 nm north and 120 nm south of the
ITCZ between 122W and 136W.

...DISCUSSION...   

North of 15N and east of 120W:

Frank is quickly approaching the northeastern Revillagigedo
Islands as a tropical storm this afternoon, and will move across
Isla San Benedicto during the next few hours. Frank is
generating large southeast swell that has begun to reach the
southern entrance of the Gulf of California between Cabo San
Lucas and Cabo Corrientes to produce offshore seas of 6 to 8 ft.
Seas of 8 to 12 ft will cover the Pacific offshore waters off
Baja California Sur through early next week outside of the main
storm environment of Frank, as it continues moving northwest
into the open Pacific waters. This will create rough and
hazardous marine conditions across the offshore waters, and
large and powerful surf conditions along exposed coastal areas
of Baja California Sur. Large waves and very strong rip currents
will dominate these coastlines throughout the weekend.

A surface ridge extends from north of the area through 30N130W
to near Baja California Sur. Moderate southerly flow will
persist across the Gulf of California between the ridge and
resident troughing meandering across the peninsula. These
southerly winds may increase to 15 to 20 kt over the far
northern portions of the Gulf of California by tonight as high
pressure builds to the northwest. The building high pressure
will also support strong northerly winds offshore of California
tonight through Sunday, allowing northerly swell to raise seas
to 8 ft or higher and penetrate south to 26N by Sunday. Combined
seas of 7 to 9 ft will develop in the offshore waters off Baja
California Norte Sunday into early next week in mixed swell.

South of 15N and east of 120W:

Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are expected across and
just downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo during the overnight
hours the next several days aided by nocturnal drainage flow.

Farther west, Georgette is moving to the west of the area. The
associated strong winds and seas 8 ft or greater shifting west
of 120W through late today. Georgette is forecast to reach
hurricane strength during the next 24 hours.

West of 120W:

The remnant low of Estelle continues to produce a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. This has resulted in a light wind flow
persisting over the deep tropics. Fresh east winds continue
between Estelle and the high to the north, but the winds will
continue to gradually diminish as Estelle weakens further as it
moves westward. Fresh northerly wind and short period swell of 7
to 9 ft will push south of 32N to 26N between 119W and 130W
Sunday until early next week.

$$
Stripling