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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 011518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1605 UTC WED APR 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1300 UTC. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...             
THE ITCZ WAS ANALYZED FROM 02N100W TO 00N111W TO 00N117W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 00N TO 03N BETWEEN 94W AND 
105W. A TROUGH WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N84W TO 05N91W WITH SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 02N TO 07N BETWEEN 85W AND 91W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                 
A 1034 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 40N138W. A RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH THROUGH 30N128W TO 14N104W. THE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND BUILDING TROUGHING OVER THE 
INTERIOR WESTERN U.S. IS SUPPORTING AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS 
OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST N OF THE AREA. SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWS 
20-25 KT WINDS N OF 28N BETWEEN 119W-126W. ALTIMETER AND BUOY 
DATA SHOWS SEAS TO 13 FT IN THIS AREA. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST 
INTO THU BEFORE DIMINISHING. A LARGE AREA OF NW SWELL WITH SEAS 
8 TO 10 FT BLANKETS THE AREA N OF 22N BETWEEN 116W-130W AND N OF 
09N W OF 130W. FRESH E-NE TRADE WINDS LIE ON THE SW SIDE OF THE 
RIDGE AXIS AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO A FRESH TO STRONG 
BREEZE OVER W WATERS BY THU AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS. 

A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIES FROM 22N124W TO 05N125W. A 50-KT 
SOUTHERLY JET LIES ON THE E SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL 
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REAR RIGHT QUADRANT OF THIS JET 
IS PROMOTING LIFT OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR THE 
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TROUGH THAT WAS ANALYZED FROM 13N123W 
TO 04N122W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 07N-13N. THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS NEW 
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. THIS 
WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH TO DECOUPLE AND THE SURFACE TROUGH TO 
DISSIPATE. THE BEST VERTICAL LIFT WILL SHIFT NE AWAY FROM THE 
AREA OF HIGHEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DECREASING THE CHANCE OF 
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

GAP WINDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A PERSISTENT E-W RIDGE 
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TROUGHING FROM COSTA RICA 
NEAR 10N84W TO 05N91W IS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH E-NE 
BREEZE. THIS BREEZE IS BEING ENHANCED BY NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW 
OFF THE MOUNTAINS...ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO REACH THE ADVISORY 
CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. 
A FRESH TO STRONG E-NE WINDS DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO TO 
89W WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING. A WEAK PULSE OF WINDS TO A 
FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND 
TOMORROW NIGHT...BUT WILL HUG CLOSER TO THE COAST. 

$$
SCHAUER


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 01-Apr-2015 15:19:03 UTC