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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251600
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 25 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough passes through 09N84W, to a 1009 MB low
pressure center that is near 08N91W, to 08N110W, to 13N120W, to
a 1009 MB low pressure center that is near 11N124W, to a 1010 MB
low pressure center that is near 10N133W, beyond 08N140W.
Convective precipitation: Numerous strong from 75 NM to 180 NM
in the northern quadrant of the 08N91W low pressure center.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong within 360 NM to the north
of the monsoon trough between 102W and 107W, within 150 NM to
the north of the monsoon trough between 121W and 128W, within 75
NM to the south of the monsoon trough between 131W and 136W, and
within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon trough from 130W
westward. 

Convective precipitation: Scattered strong in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec from 14N to 16N between 94W and 96W.

...DISCUSSION...   

An upper level trough extends from a 38N141W cyclonic
circulation center to 25N148W. Upper level southwest wind flow
covers the area that is from 18N northward from 130W
westward. 

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 17N118W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 14N to 23N between
115W and 123W. 

N of 15N E of 120W:

A NNW to SSE-oriented trough will meander in the area of the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California during the
next several days. This will set the stage for light to gentle S
to SW winds in the Gulf waters through at least Tuesday.

Fresh to strong N winds are expected to continue along the
California coast through Wednesday. N swell generated by the
winds will combine with SW swell to maintain combined seas
of 8 to 9 feet N of 27N and E of 125W.

Long period SW swell is subsiding, but still producing combined
seas that are ranging from 7 to 10 feet S of 20N and E of 106W.
The seas will continue subsiding, and go down to less than 8
feet by late Sunday night.

Strong N winds are expected to develop across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec during the early morning hours of Sunday and Monday.
The associated sea heights only will reach 8 feet due to the
short-term duration of the northerly pulses.

S of 15N E of 120W:

A short lived gap wind event is affecting the Gulf of Papagayo
today as N to NE winds of 20 to 25 kt cause seas to build to
between 8 and 9 feet from the Gulf westward to at least 90W. The
wind speeds will subside to less than 20 knots in the afternoon
later today. The sea heights will stay around 8 feet for the
first 24 hours of the forecast period, and they will fall to
less than 8 feet Sunday afternoon.

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails to the S of the monsoon trough,
while gentle to moderate NE to E winds are observed to the N of
the monsoon trough.

Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is maintaining combined
sea heights of 7 to 8 feet to the south of 02S to the west of
114W. An area of 8 foot seas will develop about 180 NM to the NW
of the Galapagos Islands during the early morning hours of
Sunday. An area of 8 foot sea heights eventually will subside to
less than 8 feet about 360 NM to the northwest of the Islands at
the end of the 48-hour forecast period.

W of 120W:

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to
the northwest of the line that passes through 13N140W to 18N111W
beyond 30N119W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are from 25N
northward. Light to moderate NE trades are elsewhere to the N of
the monsoon trough. Moderate SW winds are occurring to the S of
the monsoon trough. This general setup for winds is expected to
continue for the next few days.

$$
MT