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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291522
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                   
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                       
1605 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           
TROPICAL STORM HERNAN HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO POST TROPICAL LOW 
AT 29/1500 UTC. THE REMNANTS OF HERNAN IS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 
121.1W OR ABOUT 620 NM W OF SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
MOVING W-NW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM IN NW 
QUADRANT. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL 
HURRICANE CENTER. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 12N ALONG 95W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
N OF 12N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W.

TROPICAL WAVE FROM 6N113W TO 1011 MB LOW NEAR 10N113W TO 16N110W 
MOVING W 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 11N107W TO 
14N112W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N93W ALONG 7N93W TO 7N97W WHERE 
THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 10N108W THEN RESUMES 10N115W 
ALONG 6N120W TO 9N126W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 
6N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF ITCZ 
BETWEEN 117W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...                                                
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM 30N126W TO 
16N126W...DELIVERING DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ W OF 123W. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE 
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE 
RELATIVELY MOIST AREAS ALONG THE ITCZ NEAR THE LOW AT 11N127W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N TO 12N 
BETWEEN 126W TO 130W. 

PERSISTENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ALONG WITH COOLER 
WATER TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR ARE TOGETHER CONTRIBUTING 
TO THE WEAKENING OF HERNAN. 

SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N TO 15N W OF 139W REMAINS 
NEAR A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 16N139W WITH FRESH TO STRONG WINDS 
PERSISTING N OF THE LOW MOSTLY DUE TO PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 
THE LOW AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8 TO 10 FT 
IN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED TRADES. THE LOW WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA 
THROUGH TODAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS N OF THE LOW BY 
EARLY MORNING WED. 

THE N WINDS TO 25 KT THAT HAVE BEEN IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
WITH SEAS TO 9 FT HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 
NEAR 95W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON 
WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BY EVENING. 

WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AROUND 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH WED MORNING WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. WINDS AND 
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 20 KT AND 8 FT BY LATE WED 
MORNING. 

$$ 
PAW



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 29-Jul-2014 15:22:57 UTC