624 
AXPZ20 KNHC 292202
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Jul 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western East Pacific Low (EP98): Showers and thunderstorms have 
increased in association with a well-defined area of low pressure
located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
If the thunderstorms persist or increase, this system will 
likely become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it 
moves westward into the Central Pacific basin. This system has a 
high chance of formation within the next 48 hours. 

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): A large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 500 miles 
south of the southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a 
trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form 
during the next couple of days while the system moves west-
northwestward around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico. This system has a high chance of 
formation within the next 48 hours. 

Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details about these invests.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 88.5W, from 03N northward
through El Salvador and western Honduras, moving westward around
5 kt. Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is noted 
from 05N to 11N between 88W and 93W.

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 122W, from 03N to 19N, 
moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 120W and 124W. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 9.5N84W to a 1009 mb low near 
11N104W to a 1008 mb low near 11N137W to 08N140W. Widespread 
moderate to locally strong convection is occurring from 06N to 
16N between 95W and 115W. Scattered moderate convection is 
noted from 06N to 08N between 82W and 85W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above for information on the 
potential for tropical development offshore of southwestern 
Mexico this week.

Strong to locally near-gale force winds are occurring in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec as a strong pressure gradient prevails 
between a trough over the central Bay of Campeche and high 
pressure in eastern Mexico. Fresh to locally strong E winds 
extend beyond the Tehuantepec region through the waters offshore 
of Oaxaca and Guerrero. Recent altimeter satellite data show seas
of 8 to 9 ft in this region. Elsewhere, a surface trough has 
been analyzed over the northern Gulf of California, while ridging
extends over the Baja California waters. The pressure gradient 
between these features is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas, as observed by recent altimeter 
satellite data, north of Cabo San Lazaro. In the Gulf of 
California, moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail. 

For the forecast, a trough of low pressure is located about 500 
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves west-northwestward around 15 mph, remaining 
well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. This system 
has a high chance of formation within the next 48 hours. 
Elsewhere, strong to occasionally near-gale force winds will 
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning, with winds 
diminishing slightly thereafter. Fresh to strong winds will also 
extend beyond the Tehuantepec region to offshore of Oaxaca and 
Guerrero through Wed morning as the aforementioned low pressure 
strengthens to the southwest. Looking ahead, strong winds are 
expected to redevelop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas in 
mixed NE and S swell are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo
through the waters offshore of El Salvador as low pressure 
persists in the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate NE winds prevail. 
South of the trough, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are 
noted. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are observed via altimeter satellite
data over the regional waters. 

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds 
and moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through 
Thu as low pressure prevails in the south-central Caribbean, and 
an area of low pressure strengthens to the west. Winds are 
expected to strengthen to strong speeds late this week, and fresh
winds will extend through the waters offshore of El Salvador and
Guatemala. Looking ahead, a long-period SW swell may lead to 
rough seas offshore of South America by late week. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See the Special Features section above for information on the 
potential for tropical development in the western East Pacific 
this week.

A 1008 mb low analyzed near 11N137W, EP98, is producing fresh to
locally strong winds and 8 to 9 ft seas surrounding the low, 
especially in the northern semicircle. Farther east, moderate to 
fresh NE to SE winds are occurring near a tropical wave analyzed 
along 122W. Otherwise, ridging extends over much of the eastern 
Pacific north of the monsoon trough, and widespread moderate to 
locally fresh winds and moderate seas are occurring in this 
region. However, gentle winds and slight seas are noted north of 
25N and west of 130W, near the center of the high pressure. South
of the monsoon trough, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail, with 
widespread fresh winds and locally rough seas occurring near the 
low pressure analyzed near 11N104W, EP99. 

For the forecast, a well-defined area of low pressure is located
about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. If the 
thunderstorms persist or increase, this system will likely become
a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves westward 
into the Central Pacific basin. This system has a high chance of
formation within the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, a trough of low 
pressure is located about 500 miles south of the southwestern 
coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during 
the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward
around 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico. This system has a high chance of formation within the
next 48 hours. 

$$
ADAMS