019 AXPZ20 KNHC 020936 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 2 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Flossie is centered near 18.6N 108.3W at 02/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Seas in excess of 12 ft reach as far as 120 nm in the northern semicircle and 90 nm southern semicircle from the center of Flossie, with maximum wave heights to 31 ft. Numerous moderate convection is within 75 nm from the center of Flossie. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 09N to 23N between 100W and 115W. Flossie is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is forecast this morning, with rapid weakening expected to begin by the end of the day. Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Flossie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N99W, then continues west of Hurricane Flossie from 14N112W to 07N135W. The ITCZ begins near 07N135W and continues beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection related to Hurricane Flossie, numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 03N to 15N east of 104W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on Hurricane Flossie. Elsewhere, a ridge extends over the waters north of 15N and west of 120W, centered by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 37N135W. This pattern is maintaining moderate to locally fresh NW winds off Baja California, where combined seas are 4 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted across the Gulf of California, being highest at the entrance of the Gulf due to the proximity of Flossie. Farther south, light to gentle breezes prevail off Oaxaca and in Guerrero where combined seas are 3 to 7 ft primarily in SW swell. The remaining waters off Mexico from Jalisco to Michoacan are impacted by Flossie as described in the Special Features paragraph. For the forecast, Flossie will move to 19.3N 109.4W this afternoon, 20.2N 110.9W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.0N 112.3W Thu afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 22.1N 113.9W Fri morning, weaken to a remnant low near 23.0N 115.5W Fri afternoon, and 23.7N 117.3W Sat morning. Flossie will dissipate early Sun. Elsewhere, expect fresh to strong SE winds over the Gulf of California today. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop several hundred miles offshore of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours, but a medium chance through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tight pressure gradient over the SW Caribbean supports fresh to strong NE winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W, with associated seas to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are elsewhere in the Central America offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia along with moderate seas in S swell. Between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE to S with 7 to 9 ft seas in S swell. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Thu night due to the pressure gradient between a ridge to the N and lower pressure along the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Moderate to rough cross equatorial S to SW swell will affect the waters near the Galapagos Islands into Thu. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast across the entire region over the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remainder of the eastern Pacific region is under the influence of a 1025 mb high pressure system centered near 37N135W. Its associated ridge dominates the waters north of 15N and west of 120W, producing gentle to moderate winds with seas in the 5 to 6 ft range in mixed swell. Farther south, large S to SW swell of 8 to 10 ft covers most of the area between 90W and 120W. For the forecast, the main issue will be the large southerly swell persisting south of 10N west of 90W through late in the week. Fresh to strong SW winds may be active for the next several days from 10N to 15N between 105W to 120W, generating shorter period waves that will mix with the longer period SW swell in that area. $$ Ramos
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 02-Jul-2025 11:00:08 UTC