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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241549
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 24 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The southern extension of a tropical wave will pass through
the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the next 24 hours and may enhance
showers and convection.


..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...         

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N114W to 10N127W
where scatterometer winds indicate the ITCZ forms and continues
westward to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is observed from 03-09N to the e of 99W, within 180
nm of 06N95W, within 150 nm of 13N100W and within 150 nm of a
line from 11N111W to 08N140W.

Surface troughs are analyzed from 11N118W to 18N115W and from 
10N128W to 15N125W. Guidance is suggesting a surface low will
soon develop along the eastern trough near 11N and then track 
westward to near 11N123W on Sat and near 11N126W on Sun. 

...DISCUSSION...   

N of 15N e of 120W:

A nnw to sse orientated trough will meander e and w over the
Baja California peninsula and the Gulf of California supporting
mostly gentle southerly flow across the Gulf waters through Sat.
The gradient should further relax on sat night with light southerly
winds across the entire Gulf of California through at least Tue.

Long period nw swell supporting combined seas of 7-11 ft are
observed from 26-32n e of 120W. These seas will begin to subside
on Sat with seas below 8 ft by late Sun night.

The long period southerly swell has begun to subside. Combined
seas of 8-11 ft currently across the waters s of 22N e of 120W
are expected to subside from the w through the weekend.

Strong northerly flow is expected to develop across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on Sat night and again on Sun night with associated
seas building only to a max of 8 ft due to the short duration of
the northerly pulses. 

S of 15N e of 120W: 

Moderate monsoonal flow prevails s of the monsoon trough, while
gentle to moderate ne to e winds are observed n of the monsoon
trough. Long period cross-equatorial sw swell results in
combined seas of 8-11 ft across the entire area, except within
about 360 nm ne of the Galapagos islands. These seas will begin
to subside from the w tonight.

W of 120W:

A broad ridge dominates the EPAC waters to the n of 15N w of
120W. Moderate-fresh ne-e winds are observed roughly n of 27N
resulting in combined seas of 7-9 ft. These seas will begin to
subside on Sun and then build again beginning on Mon night.
Except as previously mentioned, moderate ne trades are expected
elsewhere n of the monsoon and trough and ITCZ and moderate se
trades s of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

$$
Nelson