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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 221608

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jan 22 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1500 UTC.


A vigorous cold front will head southeastward across the Gulf of 
Mexico through early Monday morning. High pressure building in 
behind the front over the western Gulf of Mexico Monday will 
tighten the gradient in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, thus 
gradually increasing the winds to gale force at 1200 UTC Monday. 
The high will slide quickly eastward, which will allow winds to 
diminish below gale force by 1800 UTC. Please see the latest 
East Pacific high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for further details. 


The ITCZ extends from 06N105W to 08N130W to 05N140W. No 
significant convection.


...A series of strong cold fronts and a prolonged period of 
unusually large swell will continue to affect most of the 
forecast area through the upcoming weekend...


Gentle to moderate south to southeast winds are ahead of a cold 
front N of 24N with seas of 13 to 22 ft generated by a very 
large swell from the NW. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are 
from 17N to 24N with seas of 8 to 12 ft. The large NW swell will 
continue to propagate southeastward, continuing into the deep 
tropics during the next several days. The pressure gradient will 
tighten off the Jalisco Mexico coast this afternoon as the front 
W of the area approaches. This will lead to NW fresh to strong 
winds within 120 nm off the coast increasing to near gale force 
Monday at 0600 UTC. Ridging behind the front will allow fresh to 
locally strong north winds to spread into the southern Gulf of 
California to near Cabo Corrientes late today. The cold front 
will produce a reinforcing round of large long period NW swell, 
which will maintain seas in the 12 to 20 foot range through 
Wednesday. Strong winds sustaining the swell event will diminish 
by Tuesday as the high weakens, with seas decreasing below 12 ft 
in the offshore Mexico waters Wednesday night. However, seas of 
8 to 10 ft will persist west of 100W through the end of the 


Light to gentle winds will prevail across most of the region 
through Tuesday. Seas will generally range between 3 and 5 ft 
until Tuesday, then build about a foot in response to building 
NW swell.


The pressure gradient between a cold front crossing the forecast 
area from 31N127W to 21N140W and a 1031 mb high pressure 
centered near 31N157W is supporting strong southwesterly winds 
within 210 nm ahead of the front N of 26.5N. Fresh to strong NW 
winds are occurring over all the forecast waters west of the 
front. A large NW swell event continues spreading across the 
waters with 12 ft seas dominating north of 21N and reaching as 
high as 26 ft along 29N. Seas of 8 ft or greater encompass the 
waters NW of a line from 19N107W to 14N110W to 04N129W to 
04N140W. Large long period swell will continue to sweep 
southeastward with 8 ft seas nearing the equator early Monday. 
Global models continue to show gale force winds associated with 
the cold front currently crossing the northern waters will 
remain just north of 30N through tonight. These winds will 
continue to generate NW swell. Seas of 18 to 24 ft can be 
expected west of the front where the near gale winds are 
occurring. Forecast models are in general agreement in 
developing low pressure over the western waters near 12N134W on 
Thursday and Thursday night. A large area of fresh to strong 
winds will be possible in the vicinity of the low from 12N to 
26N W of 120W by Friday morning.