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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 070951

Tropical Weather Discussion 
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Dec 07 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends off the n coast of Costa Rica at
11N85W to 08N93W to 10N106W where scatterometer winds indicate a
transition to an ITCZ which continues wsw to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted sw of the
Gulf of Panama within 30 nm either side of a line from 09N79W to
06N82W. Similar convection is observed within 30 nm either side
of a line from 14N93W to 09N95W, and along the ITCZ within 180
nm either side of a line from 13N108W to 10N120W to 08N126W. 



Gulf of California: Moderate to fresh sw flow is expected along
30N this morning just ahead of a weak cold front that will sweep
se across the northern gulf waters today. Light and variable
winds forecast across the gulf waters s of 29N early today,
becoming a moderate to fresh nw breeze behind the front. Fresh
nw flow is forecast across the entire gulf early Thu, and
increasing to a strong breeze across the central gulf waters on
Thu afternoon, and across the southern half on Thu evening. The
pressure gradient will relax late Thu night into Fri, with fresh
nw flow expected across the southern gulf from late Fri into
late Fri night.

A ridge will meander across the area from 23N116W to 15N101W
today, then shift sw some tonight. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow is forecast around the ridge as long period nw
swell continues to subside. The highest seas of 5 to 8 ft
observed n of 29N seaward of 120 nm are expected to subside to
less than 8 ft this afternoon.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Moderate to locally fresh n winds expected
late tonight. A strong n surge is expected to begin late Thu
afternoon and gradually strengthen to minimal gale force late
Thu night, with the gale conditions continuing through sunrise
on Sat. Combined seas are expected to build to near 18 ft
downstream of the gulf waters near 14.5N95.5W late Fri.


Gulf of Papagayo: Moderate to locally fresh nocturnal ene winds
are expected late tonight. Fresh drainage flow is forecast on
Thu night. A strong gap event is expected on Fri and Sat nights.

Mostly light to gentle northerly winds, and combined seas of 2
to 4 ft, are occurring elsewhere n of the monsoon trough which
is meandering e to w along about 10N. Light to moderate sw flow
is observed to the s of 10N where combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in
long-period sw swell are expected this week.


A 1022 mb surface high is analyzed near 32N128W with a ridge
extending se to near 16N102W. The surface high will shift se to
near 30N124W later today, and will strengthen some blocking the
eastward advance of a cold front, causing it to stall from
32N137W to 31N140W on Thu, and then further weaken as it drifts
w on Thu night. 

Gentle to moderate nw to n flow is expected ne of the ridge
today and on Thu. Moderate to locally fresh ne trades are
forecast s of the ridge, with the fresh winds mainly just to the
n of the ITCZ. Seas of 5 to 7 ft today will build to 7 to 9 ft
late this week across the deep tropics n of the ITCZ.